Yet another week has passed with zero tropical development in the Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center is still forecasting no new tropical development in the next five days.
National Hurricane Center 5-Day Outlook (August 15th 2019)
The last named storm in the Atlantic basin was Barry which dissipated on July 14th. If the NHC is correct with their five-day outlook, this would be the first time since the 1982 hurricane season that there was no named storms between July 14th and August 19th. The 1982 hurricane season ended up being well below average, with only two hurricanes, one of them major, and zero hurricane landfalls from any Atlantic basin cyclones. The accumulated cyclone energy of the season was a measly 32.
1982 Hurricane Season
The two hurricanes that did develop during the season were rather interesting storms. Hurricane Alberto which developed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico did not make a single landfall, which is unusual because once storms move into or form inside the Gulf of Mexico they almost always make a landfall. The other hurricane, Hurricane Debby, reached category 4 status farther north than any other hurricane recorded in the Atlantic.
Despite this unusual quiet period of Atlantic activity, its still possible for the season to become active. 85% of named storms form after August 15th after all. Also, although this season has had a similar amount of activity as 1982, unlike 1982, the ENSO status is La Nina, and is becoming even more La Nina. The National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University both issued midseason outlooks at the start of the month, and both organizations still called for an average to above average season.
However, everyday that passes with no tropical cyclones in sight, the chance of a below average season increases. Additionally, a La Nina weather pattern will not magically make the cyclones develop, and there has been low activity La Nina hurricane seasons, namely 1973 and 1974 which both featured well below normal accumulated cyclone energy and a strong La Nina pattern throughout.
Have a good night and enjoy the quiet weather!
The Atlantic remains stormless, with no new tropical cyclones expected in the forecastable time frame.
National Hurricane Center 5-Day Outlook (August 6th 2019)
The last tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin was Hurricane Barry which made landfall July 13th and dissipated on July 14th. Barry's most noticeable impact was its rainfall. However, shear and dry air on the north side of Barry, prevented a flooding event of Florence or Harvey magnitude. Nevertheless, a rainfall total of 16.59 inches was recorded near Dierks, Arkansas, which made Barry the wettest tropical cyclone in Arkansas history.
Hurricane Barry at landfall (July 13th 2019)
This "infamous" map has been circulating twitter recently. Five states have broken their tropical cyclone precipiation records in the last three years. Including Texas with Hurricane Harvey, Hawaii with Hurricane Lane , North Carolina with Hurricane Florence, South Carolina with Hurricane Florence, and most recently, Arkansas with Hurricane Barry. Climatologists theorize that this trend of extremely wet tropical cyclones is a result of anthropogenic global warming.
No Atlantic named storm activity has happened between the period of July 15th to August 6th three times in the last twenty years. Those seasons were 1999, 2009 and 2015 and all three of these seasons yielded hurricanes of category 4 strength. The 1999 season was particularly extreme, yielding an impressive accumulated cyclone energy of 177, and four category 4 hurricanes, including the historic Hurricane Floyd. The statistical peak of hurricane season is still over a month away, and theres plenty of time for a pattern change in the Atlantic.
1999 Atlantic Hurricane Storm Tracks + Timing
Tropical activity in the eastern Pacific has been fairly active this year with two category 1 hurricanes and two category 4 hurricanes forming. There is yet to be a single landfalling tropical cyclone in the east or central Pacific. Those two category 4 hurricanes were Hurricane Barbara and Hurricane Erick, Hurricane Barbara being the stronger of the two falling just short of category 5 strength.
Yesterday, August 5th, saw the death of not one, not two, but three cyclones in the pacific, with Hurricane Erick, Hurricane Flossie, and Tropical Storm Gil all degenerating into remnant lows.
The NHC is not anticipating any tropical cyclone activity in this basin in the next five days, however, models are suggesting increased activity next week.
American and European weather models both show increasing tropical activity in the central and eastern pacific during the latter part of next week.
Things are even more exciting in the western Pacific with Typhoon Francisco making landfall early yesterday morning in southern Japan as a category 1 typhoon.
Typhoon Francisco radar and satellite imagery upon landfall (August 5th)
Up to four inches of rain an hour fell in some areas in the Kyushu province of Japan. Overall the damage from the storm is not extreme as this region is fairly used to these typhoons.
Typhoon Francisco weakened to a tropical storm after landfall and made a second landfall as a tropical storm in South Korea this morning. Francisco will transition into an extratropical low over the Sea of Japan, then move over Hokkaido, and then finally move towards the Bering Sea.
Tropical Storm Francisco Cone
Two more tropical cyclones are spinning to the south of Francisco.
Both Typhoon Lekima and Tropical Storm Krosa are expected to intensify over the next 48-72 hours. Lekima will likely develop into a major hurricane and make landfall anywhere from northern Taiwan to southwestern Japan. Right now, it is looking most likely that Lekima makes landfall somewhere in mainland China, possibly near Shanghai, and then heads into Korea likely as a weak tropical storm. There is also a possibility that Lekima makes its first landfall in Korea. Lack of land interaction could mean that Lekima could hold typhoon strength, even if it made landfall as far north as South Korea. Tropical Storm Krosa is less of a threat to land, but there is a slight risk of a Japanese landfall near where Francisco made landfall.
Lekima is definitely a storm to watch with models indicating a rather unusual and potentially dangerous track for East Asia.
18z GFS ensemble tracks for Typhoon Lekima (August 6th)
Its good to be back and blogging :) Don't know if anyone is reading this but I'm just happy to do anything involved with wondrous world of meteorology.
After days of much warmer than average temperatures the cold is coming, and with it snow...
Rain should move into our area between 8 and 10 PM tonight. As the rain moves in temperatures will drop rapidly from 60s to 50s to 40s and down into the 30s. As the rain increases in intensity, it will mix with heavy, very wet snow. The snow won't be able to accumulate, except for possibly a coating in the higher elevations of Sussex, Passaic and Orange counties.
Tomorrow will be COLD, featuring temperatures in the 30s all day with some wet flurries around.
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday all look cold, but temperatures should get closer to average Thursday. Be sure to follow my twitter @conweather and follow!
Matthew, which is now a category 4 hurricane is approaching Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. I'll be discussing the storm on my twitter @conweather so make sure you follow!
After slamming the Caribbean, Matthew is eyeing the east coast.
Matthew is currently a category 4 hurricane with peak sustained winds of 140 mph and its eye is moving over eastern Cuba.
In Haiti, which has been hit hardest by Matthew, the winds have started to slow down a bit. Most of the hurricane force winds are out of the area, with just tropical storm force winds now. Heavy, flooding rain will continue well into tomorrow.
Matthew has definitely gotten a lot uglier since its moved over land. But its still fairly organized, and the circulation isn't displaced at all. Watch for a bump down in intensity tonight or tomorrow morning. I'd guess Matthew is down to category 3 status tomorrow morning. Matthew will move through the Bahamas Wednesday into Thursday and strengthen as it does so. This will cause severe damage across not just a few islands in the Bahamas but almost all of them. By Thursday I'd say Matthew will be a strong category 4 hurricane as it leaves the Bahamas.
Thursday night into Friday is when Florida could start to feel the impacts. Matthew should skim Florida as a major hurricane but its possible that Matthew could actually make landfall in Florida. Nevertheless, its looking like a high impact storm from Miami to Jacksonville. Preparations should really begin tomorrow along the Florida coast, if they haven't started yet.
Matthew will continue to hug the southeast coastline Saturday when it skims the Carolina's. After Saturday things get pretty unclear. One possibility is the current NHC cone forecast above. In this scenario, a landfall in eastern North Carolina is likely. The northeast would also be hit with winds and rain in this scenario. Another very possible scenario is that Matthew goes out to sea. Some of the models have trended towards this today, so we may see a shift east in the cone tomorrow. One last possible track is a loop. The latest euro and UKMET model have both showed a loop. In this track, Matthew would skim Florida, then head east, then head south and then west again, likely hitting Florida again, but as a weakened version.
Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!
As of the latest advisory, hurricane Matthew is a category 4 hurricane with peak sustained winds of 140 mph.
So wheres he headed? Matthew should make landfall or pass just west of Haiti tomorrow morning, then later tomorrow, Matthew's center should make landfall over far eastern Cuba. Land interaction should weaken Matthew to a category 3 hurricane by tomorrow night. After moving off of Cuba, Matthew will move into the Bahamas. Hurricanes have been known to explode in intensity over the Bahamas, as there aren't any high mountain peaks to damage circulation, and waters are always extremely warm. However, Matthew will have some trouble strengthening in the Bahamas as the wind shear will be quite high. The NHC's cone does a good job of demonstrating the gradual weakening of Matthew.
Luckily, the wind field with Matthew is quite small. If you look at the graphic below you can see just how small the area of hurricane force winds are. Towns that get hit directly by Matthew will still suffer serious wind damage, but it still doesn't look like winds will be the main issue with Matthew.
Even without a massive wind field, a natural disaster is still unfolding in Haiti in the form of rain. Rainfall amounts of over ten inches will be widespread across Haiti, with rainfall amounts of 20 to as much as 40 inches in some of the mountainous western regions. Towns and villages will flood, and mudslides will be widespread. Its also important to remember how unprepared Haiti is for a storm like this. The last time a major hurricane hit Haiti from the south was hurricane Hazel in 1954, and it killed 400 people.
Once hitting the Caribbean and the Bahamas, its looking increasingly likely that Matthew will ride up the east coast, likely affecting us in some way. I think I might do a post on this later this afternoon or evening.
Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!
Hurricane Matthew has developed in the eastern Caribbean and he's strengthening.
Matthew will continue to strengthen over the next couple days, likely hitting Jamaica and eastern Cuba Monday into Tuesday. The Bahamas will also feel Matthew's impacts Tuesday through Thursday.
Things are unclear past five days for now, so I'm not really going to go into whether or not we could be affected. I will say that the majority of the models do take Matthew out to sea after hitting the Bahamas so I'd lean towards that solution.
Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!
,Some questions on Hermine's track still exist, but surge is a certainty...
There's been a lot of disagreement today over where exactly Hermine is headed. So I'm going to try to clear up some of that confusion.
Hermine is currently a 70 mph post-tropical storm, that is located to the east of Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina. Her center is dry, but strong at the moment. The dry air entrenched in Hermine isn't going away soon, so rain really doesn't look to be a problem at all. Therefore, I won't be making any new rainfall maps.
Because Hermine has tracked a little bit farther east than some expected, a lot of misinformation has spread around. Hermine has been a little more stubborn than some expected turning north, and some people are jumping to conclusions on this. Its way too early for some of this talk, and we need to wait and watch and see what she does next. If you look closely at the loop above, you can kind of see a switch to a more northerly movement in my opinion.
So where do I think Hermine is headed? I'll go and side with the NHC cone. But please notice the whole cone, and realize that its possible for Hermine to go on the far eastern/western edge of the cone.
For storm surge its just a question of will it be bad, really bad or absolutely terrible. Tonight's high tide which happens around 10 PM should be pretty interesting, as the high tide this morning already caused some coastal flooding in Wildwood, which I didn't expect.
It still looks like Monday will feature the worst surge for the Jersey shore. Long Island will get hit pretty hard Tuesday into Wednesday too. This really won't be a storm at all for inland areas, with just some gusty winds possible over the next couple days.
I've heard some reports that people are starting to take this storm seriously along the Jersey shore which is a good sign. We should have a much better idea of the track Hermine will take by around noon tomorrow. Be sure to follow my twitter @conweather for more details on Hermine.
Hermine is done with Florida and is currently moving into South Carolina as a tropical storm, with peak sustained winds of about 50 miles per hour.
Hermine should stay at this strength as it moves over the Carolinas today and tomorrow morning. Once it moves off the coast tomorrow afternoon, Hermine should restrengthen and then stall out. By Monday, the NHC has Hermine at hurricane strength again, to the east of Delmarva. Over the next few days, Hermine will crawl north-north-east eroding the coastline. The worst erosion and surge looks to take place on the Jersey shore. Winds will also be an issue as tropical storm watches have been issued for the entire coastline of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut.
I've updated the Aware, Alert, Action map to include our coastline in it. If you're living right on the coast, its a good idea to do some preparations today. You can finish up tomorrow. Sunday is when things begin to go downhill for the Jersey shore and Delmarva, then NYC and Long Island will start to feel the storm Monday.
This isn't really looking like a big storm for inland areas. Unless it moves closer to shore, the winds should stick to coast, and most of the rain will stay offshore.
Be sure to check out my twitter and follow! I'll have an update on the models later today.
Not going to be doing posts on the website today except for maybe something on our possible impacts. Instead I'll be busy on my twitter tracking Hermine. Be sure to follow if you haven't done so yet.