First off, I will share my last few predictions about August. If you have been following this blog you would have known that I am expecting a cool and dry August.
First lets take a look at the models. Similar to our past few winters there is going to be a pretty big trough over the eastern United States according to almost all the models.
As you can see above all of the northeastern United States and the Midwest will have a trough for August. The main problem I have with the models is that they are depicting a second trough in the western United States. Usually the setup is to have a ridge in one half of the United States and a trough in the other half. Instead the models are predicting a ridge in the central United States and two troughs in the eastern and western . This pattern is a bit unusual but its still possible.
Nevertheless, I still think that the trough in the west will not happen. Although in the picture above it does dive a little deeper, the eastern trough is much larger and has much more cold air to work with. Models aside there are a few other reasons why I think a cool August is coming up.
The typhoon rule states that any type of weather system that affects eastern Asia will effect the United States 6-10 days later.
As you can see there is a section of low pressure just south of japan and one near the Alaska. Ignore the large chunk of high pressure to north that isn't moving. This is a forecast for August 6th and from the typhoon rule we can expect a few days of colder whether between August 12th-16th.
Finally, we are currently in an el nino pattern (see commonly used terms). During el nino summers we generally have cooler weather.
So whats coming up for this website? Well this afternoon I will be completely redoing the commonly used terms page. I have been taking some classes and i have learned a lot recently. Tomorrow I will be going on vacation at Long Beach Island. I haven't been to LBI since I was a little kid so I will not be doing much weather stuff while I am gone. I will post a short blog post when the new long range models come out tomorrow and I will tweet. But don't expect any 7 day forecasts while I am gone. Finally once I get back I will upload my first video to the CONWEATHER youtube channel! It will be the first of my preliminary winter outlooks and I will have a full analysis on the forecast right here.
Have a great day and be sure to follow me on twitter!