First, I am going to start off with the storm for tonight in through tomorrow.
A storm system has just begun to drop some snow in Erie and Buffalo. This storm system will combine with some coastal energy tomorrow and turn into a coastal storm. The storm will be too far east to drop any major snow accumulations, so the storm will be relatively low impact. The only area that will have a high impacts will be far eastern Maine. Below is the National Weather Service predicted snowfall. I have had another busy day and I couldn't make a map.
Another storm will come through Sunday. The storm will likely have two parts to it.
This part I am fairly confident about. A stripe of light snow will form Saturday night in Northern NJ, southern New York and Pennsylvania. This light snow will fall all of Sunday and pick up intensity Sunday evening. Sunday evening the band of snow will also expand into New England. Also at that time snow will begin to change to rain and ice in southwestern Pennsylvania.
On Monday snow will intensify before stopping for a period of about 6-12 hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. From this part of the storm we will likely see some heavy snow accumulations.
This is the part I am uncertain about. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday the storm will likely do one of three things. Below are the three possible scenarios.
1. Farther south track
On Tuesday afternoon the storm tracks east off the coast of Cape Hatteras. This would not create any heavy additional snow accumulations. Eastern New England, Eastern Long Island and Delmarva would likely see an additional 2-6 inches.
2. Closer to the coast track.
This track would cause very heavy precipitation and strong winds on Tuesday into Wednesday. This track would also bring in warm air so the coast and southern areas would likely see a mainly rain event. If this track were to happen a bullseye of snow would likely form over the Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey tri-state area. This area could see snow totals of 2-3 feet. Elsewhere, heavy snow accumulations are also likely with up to a foot in New York City and up to two feet in Boston.
3. In the middle track
In this track the rain snow line would likely run right through Philadelphia, eastern Long Island and southeastern Massachusetts. Any areas west of Philadelphia will likely see light snow and any areas south of the areas I talked about above will have rain. New York City and Boston would likely get the brunt of this storm with over a foot likely.
All of these scenarios have about equal chances. Every new model run packs some new surprises so stay tuned for more details.