Weather Discussion

Currently thunderstorms are moving through western and central New Jersey. These storms will cause flash flooding especially since most of the areas effected have already gotten hit by storms. 

Whats causing these storms to develop is a very moist and very unstable air mass that is over our area. This will cause some showers to be around the area tomorrow. Early Friday morning a cold front will come through which will bring with it heavy thunderstorms for the morning hours. I still expect some showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon but things should start to clear up after noon. 

Here a picture of how much rainfall I am expecting on Friday

Tropical Update:
An area of interest has formed over Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving it a 40% chance of development in the next 5 days. Whether it is cyclone or not the system could bring some rain/wind to the area during the Saturday, Sunday and Monday time frame. It looks like Long Island will have the best chance in getting in on some of the rainfall. Which is good because Long Island is currently in a drought.

Tropical Storm Danny has formed and to many people like me it has not strengthened since yesterdays 11 PM update. The reason for this is the dry air off of Africa eating at it. It is still strengthening but much slower than expected. Here are the ingredients for Tropical Storm Danny.

It may be hard to see but can you see that little area of low pressure with circles around it about halfway between Africa and the Caribbean? That's Tropical Storm Danny. On the left is a map of the how much moisture there is and on the right is the wind shear. For cyclones to grow they need moisture and minimal wind shear. Since Danny is tracking west north west. As you can see in a few days it will be running into some rather intense wind shear and dry air.

I see three scenarios with Danny right now.

Yellow Track (Minimal impact): The dry air and wind shear gets to Danny and keeps the storm farther south, not allowing it to strengthen much. It makes landfall as a tropical storm in the lesser Antilles and quickly weakens afterwards. No impact to the USA.

Orange Track (Moderate Impact): In this scenario the storm tracks just north of the lesser antilles and makes landfall in Puerto Rico as a category 1 hurricane. It weakens to a tropical storm before making landfall in Haiti. By the time it reaches Cuba the storm will have weakened to a depression.  The storm could also bring some rains to south Florida. Minimal Impact to the USA.

Red Track (Major Impact): The storm hooks much farther north than the Caribbean. Once Danny gets past the dry air and high wind shear in and around Puerto Rico it quickly strengthens near the Bahamas. It then makes landfall as a hurricane (intensity unknown) anywhere from Miami to the Outer Banks. Major Impact to the USA.


Here is the official cone from NHC.

As you can see the NHC is currently going with the orange track. Which is a good idea.

Please note that this all still very early and any impact to the USA will be 10+ days out. There is plenty of time for the forecast to change.


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-Con