A warm Christmas and then an ice and snow storm! Also is a snowstorm on its way for New Years?
First I put my thoughts out to the now 11 people who have died in Mississippi after yesterdays tornado outbreak. One of those people being a seven year old boy. This is awful especially since its just in time for Christmas.
Below is a picture of one of the hardest hit areas, Holly Springs Mississippi.
Below is your Christmas forecast. There may be a few showers around in the morning.
The pattern we are in is very active and it has been active fro most of the month. December will likely end with well above average precipitation and I expect that to continue throughout the winter and into the Spring.
We haven't had any snow because it has been too warm. But that's changing with our first winter storm of the season hitting Monday night into Tuesday.
The storm will start to get its act together in the South Central United States early Sunday dropping heavy snow in western Texas and Oklahoma.
Monday at midnight the storm will be located around Kentucky and snow will move into the area. In central New Jersey, New York City and Long Island the snow won't last very long before it switches over to sleet or freezing rain. In these areas a significant snow accumulation is very unlikely and I only expect an inch or two inches tops.
It'll be a different story farther north where the snow could last until late morning Tuesday becoming moderate. In these areas significant snow accumulations of 5 or more inches is possible but still unlikely. What I'm more concerned about is the potential for a significant ice storm in this area. Models have these areas below freezing for the entire duration of storm resulting in freezing rain and sleet.
Below is a map of my current thoughts.
mI will have a more specific weather discussion tomorrow where I will issue my first call ice and snow maps.
There are some indications that we could see another storm around or just after New Years. This storm would likely be a snow event so I'm watching it carefully. Right now the models aren't predicting anything big, but that could change.
January looks to be a very wintry month. Below is a look at my January forecast that I issued on Thanksgiving. You can read the explanation of this on the seasonal forecast page.
Be sure to follow my twitter for more updates on winter!