Warm weather continues. But is the weather pattern changing...
Tomorrow into the weekend looks absolutely gorgeous and incredibly warm for this time of year. Sunday will be the warmest day with highs in the 60s!
A fairly dynamic storm will effect the eastern United States starting this weekend and will move out Tuesday.
startThe storm will develop Saturday in Oklahoma or Texas and then track north. There could be some severe weather in the red area. I may have to shift this area east tomorrow according to the latest modeling. As the storm system head north an area of snow and ice will develop. I am now expecting a band of 6-10 inches of snow running from northwest Kansas to northeast Minnesota. A band of some decent ice accumulations could also develop in Wisconsin.
In northern Maine the precipitation will start as snow and then transition to ice and then finally rain washing away most if not all of the frozen precipitation.
It'll be all rain for us. The rain will move into the are Monday afternoon or evening and should be out of here by noon Tuesday. I really don't expect any major rain totals or flooding as a dry slot could very well form. There are a few indications that Long Island could see some nasty thunderstorms so I'll be watching that.
Our next weather system will effect us next Friday, exactly one week from now.
I really don't see a whole lot happening with this system. Some weak low pressure will move along a cold front causing rain showers and then some flurries overnight Friday. The Canadian model, which is a pretty good model this time of year, is indicating that a more powerful storm could ride along the front. However, I'm in better agreement with the American model.
What I'm monitoring most closely is the potential for a storm between December 20th-December 25th, just in time for Christmas. I'm not going to go into great detail since it is very far out. What I can say is that the setup is extremely interesting for not only a storm but a snow storm. The chance of a nor'easter is there and likely the question is whether it will be rain or snow. We will just have to wait and watch in the coming days and see what the models predict.
An extremely powerful storm is going to slam into the Bering Sea Sunday. The models have trended stronger and I am now expecting a storm with a pressure between 920 and 930 millibars, possibly even lower. This will challenge last Novembers Bering Sea cyclone which bottomed out at 920 millibars.
Whats allowing this storm to get to this ridiculous strength is a massive temperature difference between the Aluetian Islands and eastern Siberia. Waters along the Aluetian Islands are warmer then 40 degrees while temperatures in eastern Siberia are as cold as -60 degrees. This will allow for the storm to bomb out and reach peak strenght when it moves into the Bering Sea.
This could effect us in two ways. One way is that it could damage the polar vortex potentially sending an invasion of cold air in North America. Another way is that according to the Bering Sea Rule, the continental United STates could see a major storm the first week of January.
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