Quiet weather resumes...
The last of the rain should be out of the area tomorrow morning. Long Island has the potential to see some on and off showers especially during the afternoon though.
Cold air will rush in this weekend and it will finally feel like December. Highs will struggle to hit 40 and there is a chance of snow flurries Saturday. Here's the map.
I will iron out the details on this snow shower threat in the coming days. There is of course the potential for some areas to get a quick coating of snow if the lake effect really ramps up.
Areas off of Lake Ontario will experience the heaviest lake effect snow, with as much as 3 feet possible. The waters are still very warm as we haven't seen any big cold shots since October. If this lake effect ramps up I will make a snowfall map.
The warmth will return Monday and it will get increasingly warm throughout the week. By Thursday (Christmas Eve), temperatures could be remarkably warm. A cold front will start to move into the area late Christmas Eve night and temperatures will get increasingly cold Christmas Day. Nevertheless, Christmas morning will still be unusually warm.
I'd be lying if I told you I haven't lost confidence in my winter forecast. This pattern is locked in and there have been so many swings and misses lately that this winter may turn out as just another swing and miss. While we are seeing some new signals of the pattern change its hard to believe with record highs likely on Christmas Eve. It's going to take a lot to break this pattern. I'm not saying its not going to change, but I am saying that it is going to be difficult for it to change.
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