A warm Christmas and then a storm?
Well I finally saw my first snow today! While on a walk I saw a few flurries.
Tomorrow will be another seasonably cold day with wake up temperatures in the 20s and highs in the 30s with maybe a few 40s.
Temperatures will go back above average Monday and it will warm up again Tuesday and Wednesday. Christmas Eve will end up being unusually warm with some light rain and showers in the area.
Christmas Day will get even warmer on Delmarva with temperatures possibly getting into the mid 70s! Temperatures will get into the 60s once again for almost all of the coverage area, excluding extreme northern portions. It should remain pretty dry, but don't rule out a shower or two as you wake up Christmas morning.
Next Saturday, the day after Christmas, will be a little bit cooler but still very warm.
As we enjoy (or detest) the toasty weather, low pressure will start to organize itself in the Gulf Coast States. The storm will quickly strengthen and turn into a large, dynamic weather system. I see this storm taking 1 of 2 or 3 tracks.
Scenario #1: Most Likely
In scenario #1 the low pressure tracks from the gulf states directly north leaving the coverage area, and much of the eastern United States with rain. In this scenario the high pressure that would cause the storm to get pushed east is pushed away and the interaction with a low pressure system in Canada cause the storm to cut. This scenario is also the warmest which could cause a severe weather event in Louisiana, and parts of bordering states.
This scenario is possible since models have been showing it for days. However, recently models have started to trend towards a more easterly solution.
Scenario #2: Slightly less likely
In scenario #2 the high pressure sticks around a bit longer which prevents the low pressure in the east from getting sucked west. The high pressure eventually gets pushed away but the storm still manages to head a bit east before cutting. This would cause the storm to be more of an Appalachian Runner rather then a Great Lakes cutter. In this scenario western portions of the coverage area could see a mix of wintry precipitation and rain.
This scenario is possible because its what the European model is predicting, which is a very accurate model. However, we haven't seen much consistency of this solution so it may just be flip-flop and not a trend.
Scenario #3: Least Likely
In this scenario the high pressure sticks around long enough so that the low pressure system in Canada doesn't effect the storm at all. In this scenario the coverage area would see mostly snow.
This scenario is possible because if the trend continues this is what the models will be printing out soon. However, no model has predicted this yet making it by far the least likely solution.
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