A wet start to winter...
On and off light showers will continue all throughout the day tomorrow. We could see a few periods of moderate rain. The rain will pick up around nightfall and the entire area will see a steady moderate rain. I didn't really need to change my map from last night as I still expect a 1-2 inches of rain for most of the coverage area.
As cold air rushes in behind the rain we could see some snow showers and flurries Thursday. I think that western parts of the coverage area have the best chance of seeing some flakes.
Friday through Monday should be nice with temperatures running a bit above average.
Our next storm threat will be Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now the models are hinting that a storm could develop off the coast of Cape Hatteras and then head north rapidly strengthening. If this were to happen we would expect heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds and possibly coastal erosion.
As of right now the models are forecasting rain but that could very well change. Below is a look at the GFS forecasted temperatures at 850 meters.
If you look closely you can see that temperatures are a bit cooler along the Jersey Shore. This is caused by a process called dynamic cooling. This is a process where when pressure is low and precipitation is falling the atmosphere starts to cool. If the storm were to get strong enough the atmosphere could cool itself down enough for the precipitation to change over to snow.
There are still a lot of questions with this storm as it is a week out. A lot can change in a week and that's why I'm not sold on this 100% rain event that the models are printing out.
The Bering Sea Rule not to be confused with the Typhoon Rule, states that the weather pattern in the Bering Sea has a 17-21 day correlation with the weather in the contiguous United States. Models are indicating that the Bering Sea could have some major storms with there first threat next week. This would help set the stage for a very stormy January which I am already predicting.
Be sure to check out my twitter and follow! Also my winter forecast is up on the seasonal prediction page.