An unusually warm Christmas is on its way. But don't fear snow lovers! Winter is coming...
Temperatures will go back above average tomorrow with highs getting into the low 50s in some areas. It'll get warmer throughout the week and by Christmas Eve I expect record high temperatures.
A storm system will bring us some rain Tuesday through Christmas Eve.
Heres your Christmas Eve and Christmas Day forecasts...
Things get very interesting Christmas weekend.
A weak low pressure system will develop Saturday morning in Oklahoma of northern Texas. The storm will then follow one of three tracks.
As the low pressure advances eastward it will become disorganized and split into two connected areas of low pressure. One will be centered in Texas or Oklahoma, and the other will be centered in the Ohio Valley.
The one in the Ohio Valley will likely effect us Christmas weekend into Monday. Right now I think that it could cause some rain with a brief period of snow possible Monday morning. Or the low pressure could weaken enough so it would get sucked into the stronger, more south low pressure and just cause some drizzle and showers.
What we have to look out for is the low pressure to the south which could effect us from Monday night into Wednesday. Similar to last night I still see three different scenarios with this storm.
Scenario #1: 40% Chance
In scenario #1 the high pressure sticks around long enough for the storm to not get sucked west. The high pressure eventually gets pushed away but the storm still manages to head a bit east before cutting. This would cause the storm to be more of an Appalachian Runner rather then a Great Lakes cutter. In this scenario western portions of the coverage area could see a mix of wintry precipitation and rain and there could be some light snow or ice accumulations too.
This scenario is possible because its what the European model is predicting, which is a very accurate model. Also it is the happy middle of scenarios #2 and #3.
*#1 and #2 is switched
Scenario #2: 25% chance
In scenario #2 the low pressure tracks from the gulf states directly north leaving the coverage area, and much of the eastern United States with rain. In this scenario the high pressure that would cause the storm to get pushed east is pushed away and the interaction with a low pressure system in Canada cause the storm to cut.
This scenario is possible because the Canadian model, which is also a good model this time of year, has been forecasting it consistently for days.
Scenario #3: 25% chance
In this scenario the high pressure sticks around long enough so that the low pressure system in Canada doesn't effect the storm at all. The storm crawls northeast from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic allowing the storm to strengthen. This scenario would allow for enough cold air to support a winter storm with snow and ice in the coverage area.
This scenario is possible because the trend has been towards a stronger less transient high pressure. I would be weighting this scenario higher but only the GFS is predicting it which is not a very good model this time of year.
The extra 10% is for other scenarios like if the storm doesn't even happen or goes out to sea etc.
As you can clearly see the pattern is definitely switching, and the weather should get interesting in the coming weeks. Long range models are indicating that we start to switch to a colder pattern around January 5th.
Stay tuned for more updates and be sure to follow my twitter!