Things are starting to get interesting...
The weather for the rest of the workweek into Saturday looks beautiful with unusually warm temperatures.
Early Sunday morning low pressure will start to organize itself in Texas. As it moves NNE the storm will strengthen causing severe weather in portions of Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Mississippi. I originally predicted too much cold air in the Midwest because that seemed to be the model trend. I know expect Chicago to be all rain and it to be more of an ice event for the Des Moines area. Minneapolis could still pick up a solid 3-6 inches of snow, with as much as 20 inches of snow possible in the Duluth area.
The storm will reach its peak strength on Lake Michigan when it will likely bottom out at 980 millibars. It will then head ENE weakening as it does so. However, it could very well transfer its energy into the Gulf of Maine causing an ice and snowstorm in northern New England. As much as a foot of snow will be possible in northern Maine with a decent amount of ice in northern New England.
It'll be all rain for us and I'm expecting a solid 1-2 inches of it. I'll have a map on that out tomorrow.
I mentioned last night the potential of a storm between the 16th and the 18th. With the latest modeling I don't see much happening except for maybe some rain or snow showers.
What I'm most interested in is the potential of a storm for next weekend between the 19th and the 20th.
The models are predicting that an area of low pressure with lots of moisture will develop in Texas Friday. As it tracks NE it will gather more moisture and deepen.
Next I see the storm doing one of two scenarios.
Storm Track #1 is the slightly more likely scenario of the two and would result in a rain event for us.
Storm Track #2 is slightly less likely and would result in a snow event for us.
There really isn't a whole lot more to talk about when it comes to this storm threat. You'll just have to stay tuned.
I talked a lot in last nights discussion about the Bering Sea Rule and the long range pattern. I also released a special weather discussion on Saturday all about the long term pattern. If your interested in reading about the long range be sure to check out those.
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