Danny may be dead but could Erika evolve into a monster...
What I said yesterday came true and Danny has been reduced to a a ball of moisture. The effects from Danny will end up being positive since Puerto Rico is in a severe drought.
But right behind Danny comes Invest 98L. Right now Invest 98L is looking pretty good and will probably become tropical storm Erika by 11 PM tonight. I think that when Invest 98L turns into tropical storm Erika it will have winds around 50 miles per hour. Which is a good start for a tropical storm.
Erika is much larger and much faster moving than Danny. This is good because this will stop Erika from being killed off by shear. Right now Erika is in some OK conditions. The shear around it is rather strong but lack of moisture isn't much of a problem. The shear will prevent Erika from strengthening much in the next few days. But like I said Erika is very fast moving and will likely be moving north of the Caribbean in just a few days.
Here are the latest model predictions for Erika.
Now please note that these models are not all of the models. But I expressed on twitter that I'm not focusing too much on the GFS, CMC and ECMWF models right now as they didn't catch on to Danny and aren't really catching onto Erika. It's difficult to talk about intensity right now but I can say that if Erika makes it to the Bahamas we really need to watch. It was the same thing with Danny, conditions are perfect for hurricanes in the Bahamas.
The important thing to note right now is Erika is no Danny. Erika has a much higher potential to affect the east coast and maybe even affect us right here in the NYC tri state. The reasons for this are that Erika is bigger, wetter and faster. The models are also showing that a blocking high pressure will develop to the north of us around the time that Erika is moving towards the East Coast. This could potentially erase any out to sea track.
But right now since Erika is still just an invest we are still in the "wait and see phase".
I will be out all morning again tomorrow so don't expect any long updates before 1 PM. After the 2PM/5 PM advisory tomorrow I will make the first official cone for Erika.
Be sure to check out my twitter and follow it for updates on Erika all the time. Have a nice night!