A storms a brewing!
A storm system that will bring snow, ice and heavy rain, is currently organizing itself in the south central United States. I have mapped out what the storm is doing below.
Overnight tonight the area of convection that is located to the northwest of the center of our storm, should catch up to the center and start to organize. The storm will then track east tomorrow, making it into eastern Alabama. by around midnight Tuesday. Early Tuesday morning, our system should start to turn north, tracking right into the highest elevations of the Appalachian Mountains, along the North Carolina, Tennessee border.
Some models simply take the storm right up the Appalachian Mountains, passing well to the west of the coverage area. This track is quite unusual and rarely happens, making it an unlikely one. What I'm thinking is that when the storm passes over the high elevations near the NC/TN/VA border, the storm transfers its energy east and then heads north north east, tracking right over New York City Tuesday night.
What does this mean for us? Tomorrow will likely be snowy with light, on again, off again snow showers throughout the day. Around 5 or 6 PM the snow should pick up in intensity as the rain/snow line approaches. Snow should briefly switch to some sleet/freezing rain in New York City around 8 PM and then switch to plain old rain. The snow and ice will stick around longer in northwestern portions of the coverage area.
By dawn Tuesday morning everyone in the coverage area should have transitioned to plain old rain. However, I have seen events like these where the freezing rain ends several hours later than expected or doesn't end at all. I'll be watching current conditions and comparing them to model data, over the next 24 hours to see if this is the case.
Here are my forecasted snow and ice amounts. This really doesn't look to be a high impact event for New York City.
Assuming the wintry precipitation does end when its expected to do so, Tuesday will be a very rainy day.
I'll have my final call snow maps out tomorrow morning, along with a nowcasting update. Be sure to check out my twitter @CONWEATHER and follow!