Expect unusually warm and rainy weather tomorrow, as warm air is pulled up, ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs will be in the mid 50's.
Below is a look at the total forecasted rain amounts. I'm calling for much less rain, in many spots than the National Weather Service, or any other major weather outlet. I expect the flood watch in Philadelphia and central New Jersey to be dropped, or to end up being a mistake.
Friday will feature partly cloudy skies for areas west of New York City. In New York City expect clouds with a few flurries, or maybe a snow shower. On Long Island, specifically eastern Long Island, there is a chance you could pick up a coating to possibly as much as an inch or two of snow. I'll be watching this potential closely.
Saturday will be nice with a high temperatures around 40 degrees.
A low pressure system will develop off the east coast of Florida Sunday. As the storm moves north it'll pick up moisture and strengthen.
By Monday the storm will be located a few hundred miles off the coast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, sitting right on the Gulf Stream. Normally when a storm is in this location, it goes out to sea. However, an Alberta clipper coming down from the Great Lakes could pull the storm back, impacting us with precipitation, wind and probably coastal impacts Monday-Wednesday. One model that is showing this is the European.
Even as a weather junkie, I don't want the European models track to come true as it could mean major coastal impacts. The storm would have more time to strengthen and move over more favorable conditions than a "classic" nor'easter. The more "classic" nor'easter would actually be much less damaging as they are often weaker.
Storms that have followed this unusual track of starting to head out to sea but getting pulled back in, are usually damaging.
If this odd track were to come true, then the entire coverage area would likely be left with significant snow accumulations.
Obviously, as this storm is a week out, things will change. If the timing of the Alberta clipper and the main low pressure don't line up, the storm could go out to sea.
There is also the chance the Alberta clipper pulls the storm inland and we are left with more of a rain event.
Besides this storm, I don't see any real snowstorm threats in the near future.
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