The threat for a major snowstorm, perhaps even a blizzard Monday, has exploded today. Then again, there are still a lot of uncertainties.
First lets take a look at what is currently going on.
Pressure is dropping in central Florida. The center of our storm is located off the coast of Daytona Beach and has dropped a millibar in the past hour. As the low pressure moves onto water, it will develop much more quickly. The storm will start rapidly intensifying by noon tomorrow.
Below is a look at the current 500 mb heights, and the heights. The picture on the left is from twelve hours ago and the picture on the right is the current 500 mb heights. The trough has dipped a bit further south and is slightly more negative than what was forecasted by the models. This could impact the track of the storm.
Finally, lets take a look at the satellite. The brighter colors signify higher clouds, AKA a more powerful storm. The moisture streaming up from the Gulf and warm sea surface temperatures will make this storm and satellite images, very juicy.
Below I have outlined the track of this storm. The storm will bottom out between 955 and 965 millibars while it makes its closest approach to Cape Cod. Rapid intensification should begin when the storm makes that little kink in the track, off the coast of the Georgia, South Carolina border.
So will the storm hit us? Well... kinda.
Here is what I think will happen. Early Monday morning a rain/snow mix will move onto Long Island, Fairfield County and New York City. Precipitation will gradually switch over to snow, increase in intensity and then spread west. Around noon Monday, snow will be falling for the entire coverage area. Light to moderate snow will fall west of NYC, with moderate to heavy snow east of New York City. Snow showers will last into Tuesday morning.
I may very well need to up these snow amounts tomorrow. The problem is that plenty of model guidance still takes this storm out to sea which is why I am holding back. Long Island and coastal Monmouth will hit the bullseye, with over six inches likely. The warm sea surface temperatures will create bands of heavy snow that could push amounts well over eight inches in spots.
In addition to snow there will also be gusty winds. Please note that these wind gusts will go up if the storm does shift west.
I'll update the snow and peak wind gust map tomorrow morning and once again tomorrow evening.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens with this storm. Remember that when are talking about a strong storm like this, there is a strong butterfly effect. The best thign to do is prepare for the worst and assume that you aren't doing anything Monday.
We will have yet another storm chance Tuesday night into Wednesday. Then it will get extreamly cold with an arctic outbreak next weekend. Models are indicating it could get as cold as negative ten degrees in spots next Sunday.
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