Here's what we know about Erika...
Erika is doing whatever the heck she wants. The NHC can't even make cone that makes sense at this point. We don't even know where the center of circulation is.
I don't even know what to do. I mean we don't what direction she is going in. Here are the three potential as of right now.
Worst Case Scenario: Erika some how manages to stay as a tropical storm and make it the Bahamas. Once she gets there she strengthens and threatens the East Coast. Likelihood: 20% chance
Best Case Scenario: Erika continues moving due west and dissipates over Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba. Likelihood: 40% chance
Middle Case Scenario: Erika shifts to a slight west north west track and threatens Florida with heavy rain and some gusty winds. Very minor storm surge and large waves likely too. Likelihood: 40% chance.
All of these scenarios could happen but right now I am leaning towards the best case scenario.
But please note that this will most definitely change. 5 hours ago I would not be saying this. That just goes to show how drastically Erika is changing.
Hurricanes are bad and they cause lots of damage, but the conditions are so perfect over the Bahamas it pains me that Danny and now probably Erika missed it.
If Erika does dissipate take a look and my next headache...
The tropics are exhausting. I want winter!