,Some questions on Hermine's track still exist, but surge is a certainty...
There's been a lot of disagreement today over where exactly Hermine is headed. So I'm going to try to clear up some of that confusion.
Hermine is currently a 70 mph post-tropical storm, that is located to the east of Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina. Her center is dry, but strong at the moment. The dry air entrenched in Hermine isn't going away soon, so rain really doesn't look to be a problem at all. Therefore, I won't be making any new rainfall maps.
Because Hermine has tracked a little bit farther east than some expected, a lot of misinformation has spread around. Hermine has been a little more stubborn than some expected turning north, and some people are jumping to conclusions on this. Its way too early for some of this talk, and we need to wait and watch and see what she does next. If you look closely at the loop above, you can kind of see a switch to a more northerly movement in my opinion.
So where do I think Hermine is headed? I'll go and side with the NHC cone. But please notice the whole cone, and realize that its possible for Hermine to go on the far eastern/western edge of the cone.
For storm surge its just a question of will it be bad, really bad or absolutely terrible. Tonight's high tide which happens around 10 PM should be pretty interesting, as the high tide this morning already caused some coastal flooding in Wildwood, which I didn't expect.
It still looks like Monday will feature the worst surge for the Jersey shore. Long Island will get hit pretty hard Tuesday into Wednesday too. This really won't be a storm at all for inland areas, with just some gusty winds possible over the next couple days.
I've heard some reports that people are starting to take this storm seriously along the Jersey shore which is a good sign. We should have a much better idea of the track Hermine will take by around noon tomorrow. Be sure to follow my twitter @conweather for more details on Hermine.