Danny may be weakening but he isn't done yet...
Here is the first cone for hurricane Danny. As you can see I agree with the NHC on Danny weakening to a tropical storm. What I disagree with the NHC on is that they think that instead of re strengthening near the Bahamas in there cone they are predicting Danny to continue weakening. Also I think that the NHC's cone is way too far south.
I got a question on why I expect Danny to re strengthen near Florida on my last blog post. Conditions near the Bahamas are very favorable for tropical development. Below are some pictures of the current moisture, wind shear and water temperatures.
Right now Danny is moving through some very tough conditions. The waters near Danny are OK but there is a lot of dry air and high wind shear. But near the Bahamas there is very low wind shear, very warm ocean temperatures and relatively moist air. If Danny can get past the bad conditions now and move towards the Bahamas Danny could strengthen in a big fashion.
I don’t really know why the NHC is keeping Danny so far south here is the latest model plume compared to the cone from the NHC.
Danny will probably make landfall in the very far northern Leeward Islands but I think he will go north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
If you live anywhere from Miami to Massachusetts you should be watching Danny closely. I don’t expect him to go into the Gulf just because there will be too many cold fronts moving through. Right now I think that the area in the US that should be watching the most closely is from Tallahassee to the Outer Banks. If you live in this area keep a close eye on this blog and check it everyday for more developments on Danny.
I will post a quick blog post on the weather more close to home later this afternoon/evening. Be sure to follow me on twitter for more updates on Danny and all kinds of weather!