After slamming the Caribbean, Matthew is eyeing the east coast.
Matthew is currently a category 4 hurricane with peak sustained winds of 140 mph and its eye is moving over eastern Cuba.
In Haiti, which has been hit hardest by Matthew, the winds have started to slow down a bit. Most of the hurricane force winds are out of the area, with just tropical storm force winds now. Heavy, flooding rain will continue well into tomorrow.
Matthew has definitely gotten a lot uglier since its moved over land. But its still fairly organized, and the circulation isn't displaced at all. Watch for a bump down in intensity tonight or tomorrow morning. I'd guess Matthew is down to category 3 status tomorrow morning. Matthew will move through the Bahamas Wednesday into Thursday and strengthen as it does so. This will cause severe damage across not just a few islands in the Bahamas but almost all of them. By Thursday I'd say Matthew will be a strong category 4 hurricane as it leaves the Bahamas.
Thursday night into Friday is when Florida could start to feel the impacts. Matthew should skim Florida as a major hurricane but its possible that Matthew could actually make landfall in Florida. Nevertheless, its looking like a high impact storm from Miami to Jacksonville. Preparations should really begin tomorrow along the Florida coast, if they haven't started yet.
Matthew will continue to hug the southeast coastline Saturday when it skims the Carolina's. After Saturday things get pretty unclear. One possibility is the current NHC cone forecast above. In this scenario, a landfall in eastern North Carolina is likely. The northeast would also be hit with winds and rain in this scenario. Another very possible scenario is that Matthew goes out to sea. Some of the models have trended towards this today, so we may see a shift east in the cone tomorrow. One last possible track is a loop. The latest euro and UKMET model have both showed a loop. In this track, Matthew would skim Florida, then head east, then head south and then west again, likely hitting Florida again, but as a weakened version.
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