Winter storm this weekend?
Expect a cold and windy day tomorrow with highs in the mid 20s and wind gusts in excess of 40 miles per hour on the coast.
It'll be warmer Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Saturday into Sunday morning we need to watch for our next storm threat. Below are the possible scenarios for the storm.
Scenario #1 starts with rain moving in late Friday night. Late morning Saturday the rain would switch over to heavy wet snow in northwestern portions of the coverage area. Most of the area would finish as snow Saturday night. If this scenario comes true significant snow accumulations would be likely in Sussex, Warren and Orange counties. Expect less snow further southeast but a few inches is possible even for the direct northwest suburbs of New York City. Also in this scenario strong winds and some coastal erosion would be likely.
Scenario #2 is what we really need to look out for. Scenario #2 is basically just a classic blizzard with heavy snow, strong winds and coastal impacts. In this scenario the western low pressure is absorbed by the main coastal low preventing warm air from being brought north. This isn't as likely as scenario #1 but it should be watched.
In scenario #3 the entire coverage area would be left with a soaking rain. This scenario is certainly possible but definitely not as likely as scenario #1. However, since this has been the storm track for almost every storm this winter, I'm leaving it on the table.
Clearly there is a lot to monitor! Be sure to follow my twitter for all kinds of weather updates.