A very complex and interesting setup for Saturday...
Tomorrow will be a pretty typical January day with temperatures in the 20s and 30s.
Friday will be warmer with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Saturday we need to watch for quite the storm. Here is how I think it will play out.
A mix of rain and snow moves in around 3 AM Saturday. Just as the mix of rain and snow starts to pick up, it transitions over to rain as the low pressure approaches from the south. The rain will turn moderate to heavy by late morning. Then at noon, the heavy rain will start to switch to heavy, wet snow in Sussex and Orange county. The rain/snow line will move southeast throughout the afternoon Saturday as the storm starts to pull away. I will issue a snowfall amount forecast tomorrow.
Accompanying the heavy precipitation will be strong winds. With this storm wind gusts inland will likely range from 30-50 miles per hour. Wind gusts will be much strong on the coast ranging from 50 miles per hour to as high as 70 miles per hour on extreme eastern Long Island. With these strong winds coastal flooding and some beach erosion is also likely.
There is a high amount of volatility with this storm. If the storm were to track just a little bit farther west then it could mean an all rain event. Or if the storm were to track to the east, then we may just be left with some light rain or snow. What I can say is that Saturday has the potential to be an extremely difficult travel day no matter the precipitation type.
Sunday will be nice but seasonably cold. A low pressure will pass out to sea Sunday night into Monday. Right now all I'm predicting is a few snow showers on the coast. However, there are some indications of a more steady snow developing Monday. I will be watching this storm system in the next few days to see if anything changes.
It'll be very cold Monday through Wednesday as a piece of the polar vortex will dip south. The potential for single digit or possible even sub zero temperatures is there and needs to be watched.
The ensembles have a pretty strong signal for some type of snowstorm for next weekend. I'll be watching this time frame closely over the next week.
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