Cold tomorrow, but the big story hits Saturday...
Expect some very cold temperatures tomorrow morning. Highs should get into the 20s.
It should be warmer Wednesday and Thursday with highs getting into the 30s.
Saturday looks to feature a possibly major winter storm. First lets take a look at the setup.
What sets this storm apart from others is the addition of a strong high pressure. The high pressure to the north will force in cold air, and the high pressure to the west will prevent the storm from cutting. Often with this setup you have to worry about an out to sea, but I think that the high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will prevent that.
Sounds like the perfect setup! Well, it is. Some of our biggest storms in history including the historic blizzard of 1996 have taken a track similar to this. So is another historic blizzard on the way? Maybe, but I'm holding back from using those words as the storm is still a few days out.
So what should you expect to see? Here's how I think it'll play out.
Snow should move in Friday night, and quickly turn heavy as the night goes on. It'll snow all day Saturday with blizzard conditions possible if not likely. Overnight Saturday the precipitation will mix with rain and sleet on the coast and on Long Island. There is a chance that the rain/snow line moves further inland but it isn't very likely. Light snow will stick around until Sunday as the storm will be moving very slowly. It won't be until the middle of the day Sunday that the storm finally moves out. When its all said and done, significant accumulations are likely. I'm waiting until Wednesday afternoon to release any kind of snow accumulation map.
What is arguably more concerning than the snow threat, is the coastal threat. The coast should expect strong winds perhaps gusting near or past hurricane force, if the current forecast holds. Coastal flooding will also be a major concern as it will be enhanced by the full moon. After the storm temperatures will be very cold which won't be good if the power goes out.
There is no need to panic as this storm is still a few days out. What I'd recommend doing is making sure you have a few shovels or your snowblower is working. Also if you have plans for Saturday be ready to cancel.
There is still a chance that this storm slips through the cracks despite strong model agreement. I'll have a good idea of the what will happen Wednesday afternoon once the low pressure system hits the Pacific Northwest.
There is a chance for yet another snow event next Wednesday into Thursday.
I'll have an update in the morning if there are any surprises in the models. If I don't have an update, assume the forecast is still on track. Be sure to check out my twitter and follow!