Models, models, models...
Before I vociferate about this weather model madness, lets take a look at something much more important.
Super typhoon Winston, which is as strong as a category five hurricane, is slamming into Figi as we speak. As it slips in between the two main islands in Figi, winds will gust between 150 and 200 miles per hour! Utter devastation is likely in Figi and I urge you to keep the nearly one million residents in your thoughts.
Words can not explain how awful the weather models have been. I can't remember the last time the models have been this bad.
Lets start with the Sunday night into Monday morning threat. Every run models have been shifting from as much as eight or nine inches of snow, to nothing. This has made the forecast a very difficult one.
So what do I think? Expect a completely rain event in the green area. In the red area, light rain should change to wet snow Monday morning. A couple inches is possible.
But as I have been saying, model madness. Some models push all the precipitation to the south of the coverage area.
This is where the real craziness comes in.
A few days ago there was some classic model disagreement, for the Wednesday-Friday threat. Some models tracked the storm just to the west of us, and some tracked just to the east. This was pretty typical and usually gradually gets sorted out over the next few days.
What makes this truly mad, is that the models have not come together, but have grown much farther apart. Below I have drawn in some of the tracks different models take. The larger the arrow, the more accurate the model is.
The range from the farthest west model and the farthest east model, is around 1,300 miles. See why this is so difficult?
In addition to track, models won't agree at all on the structure of the storm. Some have one strong, organized storm, some have three weak waves of low pressure.
Right now I think that we see one round of snow to ice to rain Wednesday, and then another round of snow to ice to rain Thursday. Snow and ice accumulations shouldn't be significant.
I hope that the models came together and I can make a map tomorrow.
Be sure to check out my twitter @CONWEATHER and follow!