January 1st Weather Discussion

Winter is coming...

​Temperatures tomorrow and Sunday will be 2 to 4 degrees above average with highs ranging from the mid 30s to the low 40s. 

We start to get colder Sunday night, as an arctic cold front moves in.

Expect increasingly cold temperatures Monday with highs not making out of the 20s.

Tuesday will be very cold with morning time lows in some areas in the single digits! Below is a look at the Tuesday morning lows. The 15 in
15-20 degrees got cut off.

It'll be warmer Wednesday with afternoon highs getting into the mid 30s. Thursday and next Friday temperatures will go back above average with highs in the low 40s. 

Low pressure will organize itself Thursday around Texas. That system will track northeast Friday and precipitation will reach us early Saturday morning. Right now I think that it'll start as rain and then gradually shift over to snow, from north to south, throughout the day Saturday. Then everyone finishes with some snow late Saturday night.

If my current thinking comes true we could be looking at our first real snowstorm for northern portions of the coverage area. 

If the storm doesn't transfer its energy fast enough or doesn't transfer it all,then we could be looking at more of a rain event. All these details will be figured out in the coming days.

We have another snow storm threat for next Monday into Tuesday. The details are not at all sorted out as the weather models this far out don't help much. What I can say is that the setup is very conductive for a snowstorm and it needs to be watched closely.

So what is this snowstorm friendly pattern we are heading into? 

Well first off the strong el nino that I have been talking about for months is finally weakening.

Also, the telleconnections are starting to go in favor of a colder, snowier pattern.

Below is the forecasted AO or Arctic Oscillation. When the AO is negative it favors colder weather in the eastern United States. As you can clearly see the AO will be dipping way negative in the next few days. This was expected with the high Siberian snow cover and it should stay mostly negative through March.

Below are a look at a few other important telleconnections. I'm just going to run through these quickly. 

Very Positive PNA - Colder Weather

Transient NAO - No major effect on our weather. Should go negative in February resulting in cold.

Slightly Positive WPO - Slightly positive could help bring in warmer air. The WPO will likely be overwhelmed by other factors.

Transient EPO - I expect the EPO to be fairly transient through March not really affecting our weather.

Another big factor contributing to the pattern change is the collapse of the polar vortex. 

The polar vortex has been very strong all Fall and into December, keeping all the cold arctic air locked up. Below is a look at the temperatures in the stratosphere over the past month or so. 

As you can see we have seen a massive push of warm air in the North Pacific. This is breaking apart the polar vortex and while it does so sending cold air into eastern North America.  Below is a model projection of the temperatures and heights in the stratosphere. 

The polar vortex, which when strong is perfectly round becomes deformed and stretched out.

As you can clearly see winter is getting interesting. Be sure to check out my twitter and follow!

​-Con