Tomorrow will be the calm before the storm with sunny skies and cold temperatures.
Then Saturday comes...
Here is what my current thinking is on how the blizzard will play out.
Snow will move into the coverage area early Saturday morning and pick up rapidly. By noon, heavy snow will be falling with blizzard conditions in many areas. This period of heavy snow will end pretty quickly in northern sections of the coverage area, but should last much longer further south. The snow should start to move away around midnight Saturday and should be completely out of the area by Sunday morning.
Snow totals are a big question right now. Below are my "conservative" thoughts.
The reason this map is "conservative" is because almost all of the short range guidance wants to include pretty much the entire coverage area in 18-24+. There are two reasons I am not forecasting this. One reason is because the medium range models are not forecasting this at all, and have the cut off line near Philadelphia. The second reason is because strong thunderstorms in the south could have hindered the models. If the short range models stick with what they are forecasting tomorrow morning, I will significantly up snowfall amounts.
As with any strong nor'easter, damaging winds are expected on the coasts. Winds will gust near or possibly past, HURRICANE force on the Jersey shore.
In addition to strong winds, there will be MAJOR storm surge. Cape May is expected to take the brunt of the surge flirting with SANDY LEVELS.
If your on the Jersey shore, prepare for a TROPICAL STORM. I expect a few voluntary evacuation orders to go up for towns right on the coast.
Join me on twitter and probably with a quick update tomorrow morning. I will update maps one more time tomorrow afternoon before the storm hits...