Coldest air so far is moving in. Also possible snow...
Expect above average temperatures Sunday with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Sunday night an arctic cold front will start to move into the area. Monday will be cold with high temperatures not reaching 30 degrees in most areas.
The coldest morning so far this season will likely be Tuesday. Wind chills will be 5-10 degrees colder.
Highs Tuesday won't be much warmer with almost everyone staying below freezing.
Expect cold morning lows Wednesday in the teens and 20s. However, temperatures should go back above average in the afternoon with highs well into the 30s.
Thursday will be quite warm with highs well into the 40s.
Friday and Saturday I am watching the potential for a winter storm. I see two possible scenarios with this storm.
In Scenario 1 low pressure develops in Texas Thursday and moves east throughout the day. The low pressure moves northeast weakening as it does so Friday. Friday night the low pressure re develops off the Delmarva coast and turns into a coastal storm. Finally the storm departs Saturday afternoon.
In this scenario the precipitation would start as rain and sleet Friday afternoon. Friday night the precipitation would switch over to snow and significant snow accumulations would be likely.
This scenario is possible because the weather pattern supports it. If you would like to read up on the specifics of the pattern read last nights weather discussion. This problem with this scenario is the latest model runs have been showing something that looks more like scenario 2.
Scenario #2 starts the same as scenario #1 with low pressure developing in Texas Thursday. In this scenario the storm is more organized and it doesn't transfer enough energy to the coast for a second low pressure system to form. Since the storm tracks inland it is much warmer then scenario #1.
In this scenario the precipitation would be all rain and no major travel impacts are likely.
There are a few other less likely scenarios that are also possible. Of course anything in between these scenarios is possible.
Shockingly we have another winter storm threat for the 11th-13th which is Sunday through Tuesday. What models are printing out is that a low pressure would develop in the Gulf on the 11th. The low pressure would then track up the coast and turn into a nor'easter. Storms that take this track usually have a lot of moisture to work with and can cause major snowstorms. If a storm were to take this track it would almost certainly cause a major impacts since this is an El Nino year and with the very warm sea surface temperatures.
While this storm threat is rather far out it looks very promising. This whole setup is reminiscent of a few other big snowstorms in past.
The active pattern will persist into February as a snowy winter is expected.
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