A severe outbreak in the south? Also, is any snow in the forecast?
High temperatures will reach into the 40's tomorrow, and around 50 on Monday. There may be a few showers on Monday also.
Tuesday will be nice with highs in the low to mid 40's.
While we enjoy nice weather, a severe thunderstorm outbreak is possible in the south. In the dark red area tornadoes are likely, with a chance for some strong tornadoes. The models aren't really agreeing on how much instability will be in place Tuesday. This will be sorted out in the coming days.
Wednesday will feature light to moderate rain with about a half an inch to an inch and a half of rain expected. If the rain were to be a little heavier than expected, there could be some river flooding. The rivers are already high with the snow-melt. The last two months of wet weather haven't helped either.
Next Saturday may feature a bit of snow. I don't see this becoming anything big but I'll be watching for any changes. The area with the highest chance of seeing maybe one to three inches will be Suffolk county, specifically eastern Suffolk.
A more serious snowstorm threat will come next Monday. The track is not figured out, and the storm may very well go out to sea but its worth monitoring.
So in the short to medium range, we don't see any strong signals for a potent storm. The medium to long range is a whole different ball game.
There is a strong signal for some type of major storm between February 9th and February 12th. Below is an image of the track I believe this storm may take, if it comes to fruition. I have determined this by looking at ensembles, analogs and a new upcoming forecasting method, the Bering sea rule.
I can't say much about this storm threat as it is very far out.
Certainly is an interesting weather pattern we are in. Be sure to check out my twitter @CONWEATHER and follow!