Two wintry threats!
Well this morning ended up living up to the forecast. My temperature forecast verified pretty well but I was a little to conservative in northwestern New Jersey where temperatures got below ranged from -5-5 degrees.
Expect another cold morning tomorrow with lows in the teens and 20s. Temperatures will warm up quite a bit in the afternoon with highs well into the 30s.
Temperatures Thursday will be several degrees above average with highs in the mid 40s. Expect similar temperatures Friday.
After sundown Friday temperatures will cool back below freezing and some sleet or snow will likely start moving into the area. The precipitation will quickly switch over to plain rain in central New Jersey, NYC and Long Island. However, the wintry precipitation will last longer farther north and west.
By dawn just some light rain will be around. Overall I don't expect any major impacts. There is the potential for a quick inch or so of sleet and snow in the northwest counties.
A hybrid storm may effect us Friday into Saturday. Right now it looks like the storm will stay way out to sea but there is a chance it could shift west. I don't see that happening but it's worth pointing it out.
We will have another more important, winter threat for Sunday through next Tuesday. It'll all start Saturday as low pressure develops in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Its worth pointing out that the waters in the eastern Gulf are extremely warm which will allow for the storm to quickly strengthen.
There are still a lot of questions about what track this storm takes. The models have a very wide range of possibilities and aren't offering too much help. What I'm thinking as of right now is that the storm tracks close to the coast. This would result in rain along the coast and for all of the major cities, with snow and mix farther inland. If my current thinking comes true, there will be coastal impacts from Delmarva to Massachusetts.
The problem with forecasting this storm is that its track is directly dependent on the Saturday storm. This isn't uncommon with storms, but rarely are they so little time in between them. All I can say is that it is a difficult forecast for both the models, and the forecaster and is subject to change.
Expect this active pattern to continue into March.
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