A January washout tomorrow, but is snow on its way...
Rain will move in overnight tonight. It'll be quite the washout especially considering its January. Also unusual for January will be the high temperatures that will flirt with 60 degrees. Expect a solid 1-3 inches of rain before it moves out tomorrow evening. A rumble of thunder and wind gusts past 40 miles per hour is also possible.
Monday will be much colder with highs in many areas staying below freezing. In the city temperatures will get, just above freezing with a high around 34 degrees.
Tuesday will be warmer with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Tuesday night will be colder with some light snow moving in around Midnight. The snow should continue on and off until Wednesday morning. Some quick accumulations are likely as you can see below.
It is worth mentioning that the NAM model is indicating that a band of snow could form Wednesday morning over central New Jersey. If this was to happen then a boost in snow accumulations would be expected. The NAM model is not the best but it has had a few victories. Some other models have hinted at this too so it is definitely possible. I'll be watching for any changes in the models that would support this in the coming days.
Thursday and Friday will feature fairly tranquil weather with slightly warmer than normal temperatures.
Next weekend we have to watch for our next winter storm threat. I see four different possible scenarios with this storm. Please note that the first two scenarios are significantly more likely than the second two. The third and fourth scenarios are really the "what could go wrong" scenarios.
Before I go into the scenarios let’s take a look at the latest teleconnections and the state of the MJO. First off, the PNA is way positive and the NAO is negative. This combination is conductive for snowstorms and is quite the dangerous duo. The WPO and EPO will be neutral which won't really impact the track of the storm. Finally, AO will be way negative. This won't really affect the track of the storm but it will usher in plenty of cold air.
Below is a look at the MJO forecast. The MJO is expected to hover between phases 8, 1 and 2 for quite a while. All these phases are pretty favorable for snow and cold.
Scenario #1 starts with low pressure forms next Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm would track east north east Sunday and turn into a nor'easter early Monday. If this scenario were to happen we would likely have a significant or major snowstorm Monday. In scenario 1 the coastal storm would become very strong resulting in strong winds and major coastal impacts.
This scenario is possible because it fits the pattern and it’s what most of the models are predicting. The only thing wrong with this scenario is that no storm has taken it so far this winter and we need to be skeptical and not jump in too soon.
Scenario #2 starts out the same as scenario 1 with low pressure developing next Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico. The main difference with scenario 2 is that the high pressure to the north of the storm is much stronger which would in turn push the storm quickly out to sea. In this scenario the coast could see a few snow showers Sunday or Monday.
Scenario #2 is possible if, the EPO goes negative. A negative EPO and NAO often cause storms to get suppressed to the south. However, the models are no forecasting a neutral EPO and every forecasting model has stopped predicting a suppressed storm.
In scenario #3, the low pressure splits with one half of the storm cutting inland and another tracking up the coast. In this scenario we would be left with rain.
This scenario is possible because most of the storms so far this winter have taken something like it. However, it doesn’t fit the telleconnections at all and no forecasting model is predicting it
In scenario #4, the pieces just don't come together. Instead of an organized storm a wave of weak disorganized low pressure systems drift across the eastern United States. None of the low pressures get especially strong or organized and no winter weather impacts would be expected if this scenario came true.
This scenario is plausible because this has happened before. I am mentioning this scenario because the GFS model is forecasting. The GFS is not my favorite model but I thought I would include it as one of the "just in case" scenarios.
Expect this stormy pattern to continue throughout the rest of winter. For even more weather updates go check out my twitter and follow!