Despite model madness I am sticking with my guns...
Here is the latest information on Joaquin.
2:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 1
Location: 23.0°N 74.2°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 936 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
Also here is the latest satellite image...
As you can see it is a beautiful looking category 4 hurricane with a good looking eye. Joaquin should become a cat 5 late tomorrow.
Lots of models are now pointing towards an out to sea track. While this is a possible scenario it is the more unlikely one in my opinion. Joaquin is much further west than it was expected to get and the latest satellite loops suggest it is moving west not north. This will not only allow more time for Joaquin to strengthen, but will also reduce the chances of an out to sea track.
I still think that Joaquin will make landfall as a hurricane in Delmarva. Nevertheless, it is too early to be calling state of emergencies. If you haven't heard there is a state of emergency issued in New Jersey. I really think that the governor should have waited another 24 to 36 hours to make a call like that.
If what I am thinking happens, evacuation should start being issued in the next 36-48 hours. I beg of you to heed all orders your state and local officials tell you.
I will have a new cone and threat level forecast out between 5 and 6 PM. Until then, keep an eye on my twitter for all the latest on this tropical situation.