After doing yesterdays post on some of my fall thoughts I decided to go a little bit more in depth on what i think this upcoming winter will be like.
I have noticed a lot of buzz over the possible super el nino. Yes i do expect there to be a fairly strong el nino this year but i think some of the media is taking it a bit too far. Yes el nino is rising quickly but i dont expect it to hit more than 1.75 degrees. The el nino will likely peak some time in October, November or December. So by the time January and February come around (the snowiest months of the year) it will be going down.
So how will el nino affect our winter? Well first off a late start to winter is likely. While it contradicts my previous post there may be a period of time during November and December when the temperatures are average maybe even above average. But January and February is the time that we usually get our biggest storms and a moderate el nino favors big storms.
The important thing though is to remember that el nino and la nina do not determine everything. There has been plenty of el nino years where we have gotten pounded and theirs also been many years where we escape the worst of winter.
Even after some further investigation today I am sticking with my gut and saying that this is going to be a sloppy winter. Once again things can change but i think if they do change they will change for the snowier. With the right tellaconnections this winter could end up like the 2009-2010 winter. The temperatures were around average but precipitation was way up. While it snowed a lot the season was 2009-2010 was different then our last two brutal winters. Instead of having a moderate snowstorm every week or so during 2009-2010 there were multiple blizzards but not many minor to moderate storms.
The one difference between this upcoming winter and the 2009-2010 winter is that this winter most of the snow will be centered over our colder northwestern counties rather then our southern counties.
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