Will the polar vortex return? Or will we have a break from harsh winters? Here are my first thoughts on the upcoming fall and winter.
Today while I was looking through the models i noticed something interesting on the European model temperature anomaly.
Look who's coming back! Yes the polar vortex looks to be making a August cameo. Now this is not the main point of this post it just caught me off guard and i knew i needed to start forecasting for the winter.
After August is when the confusion starts. I often find meteorologists just hopscotch fall and just go straight to winter forecasts but currently I am spending all my time on my fall forecast. The CFS is currently predicting average to slightly above average temperatures with lots of precipitation. When it comes to precipitation I agree completely. With the warm ocean waters and an active jet-stream its no wonder that this fall is going to be stormy. But with the slightly above average temperatures I am skeptical. That being said here are some of my thoughts for fall.
My complete fall forecast will come out some time in mid to late August. Now I have begun to look at winter. Yes it is early but here are a few of my thoughts.