A rainy day is likely tomorrow. Also is a tornado outbreak on its way for Illinois and Missouri?
I'll start out with the tropics. Invest 94L has turned into tropical storm Kate. Over the next few days I think Kate will turn into a weak hurricane. Luckily it looks like Kate will go out to sea and miss us. However, we could see some rough seas later in the week as Kate strengthens into an extratropical cyclone.
Light rain will start to creep into the area overnight tonight. Expect some on and off showers for the morning commute. During the afternoon I expect a break in the rain or at least some more scattered showers. Tomorrow night the rain will become more widespread and we should see a steady light to moderate rain. Rain totals shouldn't be too high and I don't expect any flooding. As the storm pulls away Wednesday it will merge with Kate and turn into quite the extratropical cyclone. However, the storm will be too far out to sea for any significant impacts. All I expect is some rough waters and gusty winds on Long Island.
Things should clear up for us on Wednesday and it should be a fairly nice day. While we enjoy improving weather a severe weather outbreak may unfold in the Mississippi River Valley.
The storm system will start to organize itself early Wednesday morning dropping as much as a foot of snow in Colorado. As it moves northeast it will quickly strengthen. Warm moist air will surge ahead of an approaching cold front and a strong jet streak will form. The one ingredient that will be absent is instability. Or at least the explosive instability that we've seen in previous outbreaks will be absent.
Even without explosive instability I think there will be enough to support widespread tornadoes. I can't determine at this point whether they will be large and powerful but I do think we see quite a few tornadoes specifically in Missouri, Illinois and northern Arkansas.
There is still plenty of time to monitor this as these kind of things change a lot over a couple days. What I can say is that if you live in the red or yellow circles be sure to closely monitor the weather as Wednesday could be a dangerous day.
The cold front will move through us Thursday but the storm will be much weaker then. Nevertheless, there will still be some interesting weather. I will talk about our severe threat in greater detail tomorrow and Wednesday
Friday through Sunday will be nice but chilly. A few rain showers are possible. There are even some indications that the rain could mix with snow on Saturday as cold air sinks in.
Early model indications are pointing towards a much stormier pattern. The first major storm threat will be next Friday. Models are also indicating for a major storm system the day before Thanksgiving, similar to last year but a stronger storm. These early model predictions don't mean much but they do support my idea of a new pattern. I said in my November forecast issued 10 days ago that the second half of November would be cold and very stormy. Now the models are supporting my idea of that.
Be sure to check out my twitter and follow! I will be issuing my final winter forecast on Thanksgiving unless we have a major storm to forecast.