Meteorological winter starts tomorrow! When will we see our first snow?
Hello! The past 10 days or so have been so crazy with Thanksgiving and my winter forecast that I had to take a break from blogging. You can find my winter forecast on the seasonal forecast page. I'm expecting a mix of rain, sleet, ice and snow in December. January will be the most wild month of the year with slightly colder then normal conditions with a lot of precipitation. I expect to see 1 or 2 very strong storms in January that would cause major impacts across the coverage area. February will be very cold but less stormy then January. I still expect decent snows but the storms won't be as intense as in January. When its all said and done I expect temperatures to be 2-3 degrees below average with 150%-200% of our average snow.
Showers will start moving into the area tomorrow around noon. These showers will be mostly light but there could be a couple pockets of moderate rain. These mostly light showers will continue all the way through Wednesday evening. The rain will become steady Wednesday evening with a few pockets of heavy rain possible as a storm system transfers its energy to the coast. The rain will finally end Thursday morning. When its all said and done as much as 3 inches of rain is possible in far western parts of the coverage area.
As colder air rushes in Thursday we could see some flurries specifically in northwestern areas. Here is the map.
The new coastal low will really strengthen Thursday night and northern Maine will likely see a period of extremely heavy snow. Right now models are indicating that some areas could see as much as 12-16 inches of snow in as little as 12 hours. I actually wouldn't be surprised at all if we see something like this as this coastal low is really going to get cranking.
Beyond that the weather looks really quiet. The models have been hinting at a few storm threats 8+ days out but nothing too serious. Enjoy the quiet weather while it lasts! Come January things are going to get extremely busy.
As we get closer to Christmas I will start making white Christmas probability forecasts and updating them daily. I think I'll make my first one tomorrow.
Be sure to follow my twitter for lots of updates! Weather twitter has been crazy lately with lots of debate and arguments over this upcoming winter. I'm trying my best to stay out of it but I'm rather opinionated. We'll just have to wait and see what happens this winter as it is most unique setup I have ever seen for a winter.