With a rather quiet short-term I decided to take a look at the long-range specifically the next month.
In the short range a warm-up is likely. Things should start to warm up Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s. Tuesday through Friday will be even warmer with highs in many areas passing 70.
A system is going to be moving through Wednesday. Right now it looks like it should stay well to our south bringing rain to Virginia and the Carolinas. However, there is still the potential that some of the rain could move farther north.
As we head into November I think that the highlight will be warm start and cold finish. Here are the maps I have made for November, The first map is a forecast for the first half of November and the second map is a forecast for the second half of November.
As you can clearly see the first and second halves of November will be very different.
The first half of November feature a ridge over the eastern United States causing above normal temperatures. The storm track will be failing active for the Mid-Atlantic so I am leaning towards it being wet. As you hard farther north things will be dryer but equally warm.
The second half of November should get more interesting. Cold air will stream southward resulting in below average temperatures everywhere. Cold air enhances lake effect snow so I think that there could be some major lake effect storms in late November. While I doubt that it will be as bad as last November feet of snow is possible. There is a threat for a major storm along the coast as the setup favors these types of storms. Many areas will see there first snow and the snow could even accumulate inland.
My official winter forecast goes out on Thanksgiving Day. It will include a temperature, precipitation, snowfall and severity forecast. It will also include a highlights forecast for December, January and February. You can see my preliminary winter forecast on the seasonal forecast page.
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