With unusually quiet weather not just in our area but across the nation, I decided to look at what we may see once winter comes around.
The Winter of 2016-2017 will likely feature a moderate strength La Nina ENSO. Telleconnections are near impossible to predict this far out, but if I'd guess we'll have a positive PDO, positive NAO and the rest undetermined. Even with little information, I was still able to make a few diagnoses as to what we may see this coming winter.
In our area I'm calling for warmer and dryer than average conditions. Typically in a La Nina we would be dry with average to slightly above average temperatures. However, all of the seasonal weather models show the warmth moving up the east coast which has led me to believe things could be warmer.
The area with the best chance of getting above average snow this year will be the Midwest. In the Pacific Northwest, the storm track should be pretty active, which will keep things colder than average. Finally, it looks like the drought in California will worsen from San Francisco southward.
I wouldn't normally make a forecast like this so early, but just for fun, I thought I'd make it. Obviously, take with less than a grain of salt. Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!