Tropical Depression Nine is organizing, and its not just threatening Florida.
TD 9 has some very deep convection firing this evening. However, it still looks a bit sloppy. This should change tomorrow as the MLC (mid-level center) and the LLC (low-level center) come together.
I only have one problem with the NHC's cone, the turn. While yes, TD 9 is making the turn, its not happening as sharply as the NHC is forecasting. If you look at the movement of TD 9, its moving west-north-west or northwest. However, on the cone the movement is north-north-east. So is TD 9 going to surprise and hit Texas? No. All I can say is I'm leaning towards the northwest side of the cone at least until it hits Florida late Thursday.
I also think that the issuance of a hurricane watch was a great call by the NHC, as it is certainly possible Hermine could strengthen into a weak hurricane before landfall.
A lot of rain is also likely with Hermine. As much as 10 inches in fact in the Big Bend. 6+ inches of rain should fall in Tampa over the next 72 hours.
So whats next after hitting Florida? Hermine will likely cause tropical storm conditions along the Carolina coastline Friday, and then start to head out to sea. However, a blocking high to the north may prevent it from going completely out to sea. Its looking increasingly likely that it could curve back west, and possibly threaten the Northeast this weekend.
The GFS ensemble is the most aggressive with this scenario right now, as many different ensemble members take a tropical storm or even hurricane force low somewhere between Delmarva and New England this weekend.
All of this is five plus days out, so I don't know too much about it. This is especially true since the models really only recently brought up this potential. What I can say is that storms that recurve into the Northeast usually mean business as they don't have to deal with as much land interaction. In addition to that, the angle these storms come in push even more surge into the beaches, and hit more land.
Even if TD 9/Hermine doesn't hit the northeast, waters will still be extremely rough for Labor Day Weekend. Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!
After 11 days of tracking Invest 99L, it's FINALLY developed into Tropical Depression Nine...
Tropical Depression Nine is looking OK this evening. It's moving off off Cuba tomorrow morning so that should help it develop. Shear will also be lower then. TD Nine has its convection messed up with afternoon thunderstorms off Cuba again today, and its pretty hard to tell whats what. We'll only know until it pulls off Cuba tomorrow morning.
While there is still some uncertainty, it looks like we have a good idea of whats going to happen with TD 9. Below is the NHC's cone that I can't really disagree with. It develops TD 9 into a tropical storm tomorrow afternoon, and then it takes it into the Big Bend of Florida Thursday night as a 50 mph storm.
I've heard some people saying that TD 9 will get more intense, but I think for the amount of shear right now in the Gulf, its perfect. If the shear changes, I'm sure the NHC will adjust intensities accordingly.
After Florida gets hit, the tropical storm will likely continue to develop east of Florida. Waters are pretty warm here with the gulf stream, so strengthening isn't impossible once it gets out of the Gulf. Then we have to watch whether it could affect the Carolinas, and then possibly down the road, eastern New England. For now I think the storm will go out to sea, but things could obviously change.
Hurricane Gaston strengthened into our first major hurricane of the 2016 season. It's also the first major hurricane since Joaquin last year. He's looking absolutely gorgeous tonight, and is a sight to behold.
Gaston will continue to strengthen a bit over the next 24-36 hours before weakening a bit and heading east.
Invest 91L organized itself into TD 8 today and it looks like garbage. It's circulation is absolutely naked and conditions aren't great for convection to bubble up.
The NHC wants to develop this into a tropical storm and skim North Carolina, but I'm not so sure that's going to happen.
Finally, we have the tropical wave that's going to move off Africa Tuesday. I really don't have any interest in talking about this system, because well, it hasn't even moved off Africa yet. I'll talk more about this wave Tuesday night when we have a real Invest.
If you're in Florida, just be sure to keep an eye on the forecast for changes. A big hurricane isn't likely, but even tropical storms can be dangerous. Have a great night and be sure to follow my twitter @conweather!
Here's a quick overview of what the latest models are predicting for Invest 99L...
Euro - 12z run yesterday had a powerful hurricane going into the panhandle of Florida. The 12z run today that just came out, takes a weak tropical storm into the big bend of Florida. This model has been switching around so much, its hard to take it too seriously at this point. It just continues to flip flop.
GFS - GFS develops 99L into a weak tropical storm and hits the Big Bend of Florida. The GFS has been really consistent with this solution over the past few runs, so I'm paying close attention to it.
UKMET - The latest UKMET develops 99L into a moderate strength tropical storm and takes it into the Big Bend. Track has been pretty consistent on the UKMET, but intensity has wavered a bit. For example the 00z run was noticeably stronger than the 12z run.
CMC - I rarely use the CMC when forecasting the tropics, but it has been surprisingly consistent with 99L. For the past 4 runs, that's 48 hours its been showing this, the CMC has brought a strong tropical storm into the Panama Beach area. The CMC isn't great for the tropics but its consistency with this system has caught my eye.
Besides these models we also have the spaghetti models which I have posted below. I'll have a tropical discussion out this evening. Have a great afternoon!
Day 10 of Invest 99L watch and we still don't know whats going on. But 99L isn't the only thing going on in the tropics...
Before we look at the big story of 99L, there are some other things going on in the tropics. After weakening back to a tropical storm, Gaston is nearing hurricane strength again. However, it still looks like Gaston should miss all land, except maybe western Europe as an extratropical storm down the road.
The yellow x near the Bahamas has been designated as Invest 91L. It is currently fighting a lot of shear and dry air, and doesn't look great.
91L should track west over the next few days. The spaghetti plots skim North Carolina with some rain with this system. Some develop it, most don't, therefore, this isn't really a high priority to watch right now.
Other than 99L and 91L, another tropical wave will move off Africa Tuesday, which will be 92L. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of development in the next 5 days.
This wave looks really, really promising. A strong ridge to its north will push it due west across the MDR. By the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles next weekend, it'll probably already be a hurricane. After that, things are unclear. It could go out to sea, or it could hit land but that's all so far out I'm not even going to talk about probabilities.
Below is a satellite loop of Invest 99L, which is currently wedged between the Bahamas and Cuba.
In the beginning of the loop you can see thunderstorms exploding over Cuba. Several hours ago, there was a lot of afternoon thunderstorm activity over Cuba. This caused sinking air to develop around 99L which dryed out most of it's convection. You can see the convection over 99L just disappearing in the first few frames. However, storms have now struck back, and a big convective burst is ongoing to the east of the center of 99L. I'll be watching this burst on my twitter @conweather so be sure to follow that.
So whats next for 99L? It's still incredibly unclear. Like shockingly unclear. Where's it headed? No idea. How strong will it get? I don't know. With such uncertainty I decided to make the most useless cone ever.
I think its a given that intensity is pretty unclear at this point. But timing is also unclear. This is because with such a wide cone, if it were to track into Tampa, it would get there days before reaching Louisiana. There's also the fact that some models stall out 99L like the euro and UKMET which would take longer to make landfall too.
Speaking of the euro, boy did it take steroids today! After several runs of not developing 99L at all, it takes a strong, 964 millibar hurricane into the Alabama/Florida border. This is just one operational model, so I'm not putting too much stock in it. Also the ensembles aren't nearly as impressed.
I'm not going to go over all the models tonight, because that would be such a big waste of time. I really don't like talking about specific models on this website, but I do think I'm going to do a just models post tomorrow. This'll probably be out around late morning.
Isn't it the most wonderful time of the year? Have a great night everybody and if any gulf coasters are reading this, please play close attention to the weather. Things could change very fast.
Invest 99L is looking meh this evening. It certainly isn't doing great, as there is still no defined center of circulation. And while it has some deepish convection, its displaced all to the east of its center.
Even with the models backing off, its still a possibility this thing could really get going once it reaches the Gulf. Below I made a cone for 99L but without intensities. 99L will make it to the Gulf Coast Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday depending on which state it hits.
Besides 99L, we have a lot of other things going on in the tropics. Gaston is currently struggling in the open Atlantic. Newly coined Invest 91L has formed to the south of Bermuda and will move towards the east coast, specifically North Carolina in the coming days. I'll have a post on this tomorrow, but for now, it doesn't look it'll affect the northeast. Then on Tuesday a new tropical wave will move off Africa, (will be Invest 92L) and it looks extremely promising. It doesn't look like this wave will go out to sea either.
I kind of hope something happens with one of these system, because I am bored of tracking 99L for days. Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather. I do a lot of nowcasting there and that's been super important for 99L. Have a great night!
Invest 99L has really improved today. Convection has blossomed and it is starting to wrap around a center.
The hurricane hunters aren't going to be flying into 99L this afternoon which seems like a mistake with how well its doing. After the NHC dropped its probabilities and the models backed off, a lot of people lost all faith in 99L. However, its really made quite the come back today and could become Hermine soon.
Conditions in the Bahamas and eastern Gulf right now are fantastic for tropical development. The waters are warm and shear is low. Despite this, the models really aren't crazy about the idea of development and most don't. We'll just have to wait, watch and see what happens next.
Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!
After battling shear, Invest 99L's center of circulation is completely naked and exposed, with no convection around it. If 99L can't get it's center under some convection soon, this could be the end.
99L is so close to the Bahamas. Where the waters are warm and shear is low. I think that if it can just hang on for another 12 hours, it'll be okay. Its just a wait and see game at this point.
Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!
Invest 99L has really caught every bodies attention in the past two days. While she isn't look too great right now things could get very interesting down the road.
99L isn't looking great right now, due to high shear, but once it moves into the west over the next few days is when it should get organized.
Below is another modified cone I made for 99L. The next four days really aren't much of a mystery. 99L should track west-north-westward, and develop into a tropical storm Friday. On Sunday 97L will make landfall likely as a high end tropical storm near Miami.
After that everything is very unclear. As of right now, I think its most likely that the the tropical storm tracks west into the Gulf and then probably hits Louisiana. However, its possible at this point for any of the gulf states to get hit, from Texas to Florida. It is also possible that 99L could turn east and head out to sea. However, with the ridge to the north, this seems unlikely.
Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!
The tropics have really become active in the past few days...
Above is a map of all the different things going on the tropics. I'm going to address all of these systems in order of importance and possible impact.
Firstly, we have the tropical wave moving off of Africa, that has a purple circle around it. The models don't show this wave developing and neither does the NHC, as they designated it as an area of interest. Nevertheless, I'll keep an eye on it in the next few days just in case something changes.
Next, we have tropical depression Fiona. The sun has recently set on her satellite and she isn't looking too hawt.
Fiona should continue to drift west-north-west at a decent pace over the next few days, just holding on to its tropical depression status. It'll then most likely dissipate into nothing. There's an very slight chance that Fiona could restrengthen into a tropical storm, and then head out to sea, or into North Carolina, but that's almost definitely not going to happen.
The main reason to watch Fiona is its relationship with Invest 99L, the main system to watch. I think I'll have an update tomorrow on their relationship and how it could affect 99L.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Tropical Depression 7 formed to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands today, and boi does this storm mean business.
The NHC is forecasting TD 7 to become tropical storm Gaston tonight, or tomorrow morning. It should then strenghten to a hurricane Wednesday. Gaston isn't expected to strengthen past category 1 strength in the next 5 days.
Past 5 days is where Gaston really gets going. The GFS brings its pressure down to the 960s and has winds of a weak category 3, major hurricane.
The euro goes even more bonkers taking it down to 934 millibars. Which would be at least a category 4 hurricane, possibly category 5!
So who's going to be affected by this beast? Humpback whales. And orca whales, and blue whales and maybe even some dolphins. Yes, Gaston will be one for the fish. Hurricane Gaston will go out to sea and won't hit any land.
Finally, we have the most important system, Invest 99L. 99L is looking pretty decent tonight. In fact, for an Invest, it looks pretty good in my opinion.
I decided to make a modified cone for 99L, to show where its heading and some possible outcomes.
For the next two days, 99L will move west-north-west and organize a bit. The NHC has given 99L a 40% chance of development during this period. I think this is a perfect call by the NHC, as it could develop into a tropical depression, but its unlikely.
Wednesday into Thursday 99L will do one of two things. It'll either track over the Caribbean Islands and weaken into nothing, or go through the red area and strengthen. As you can see on the cone the red area is much larger then the purple, so I do think that 99L will move into this area.
Once 99L gets into the red area, it should strengthen and organize itself, as conditions are highly favorable. If I had to say what 99L will be this weekend, I'd say we'll have Tropical Storm Hermine in or just north of the Bahamas. After that, its very unclear. If you follow my twitter you would know that the Euro brings this thing into the eastern Gulf, and hits Florida with a very strong hurricane. Its hawt, but its 10 days out and unlikely. So for now, I'm just going to leave all of you with a cliff hanger and say the most annoying thing forecasters say, "we'll just have to wait and see."
Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow. Also check out the Tropics Page. Have a great night!
August will end with absolutely gorgeous weather. Temperatures will be in the 80s every day, with low humidity on most days. As of right now it doesn't look like it'll rain until September. Unless we get some type of tropical system I don't see any real rain events in the near to not-so-near future.
Since our weather will be so quiet, almost all posts on this blog this week will be on the tropics.
Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!