Erika is not looking good.
We'll it looks like Erika will suffer a similar fate to Danny. The most likely scenario as of right now is Erika tracks over Hispaniola and by the time she gets to Florida she is reduced to just some moisture. For us back up in the NYC tri-state, no impacts are likely.
But Erika has a few tricks up her sleeve that could help her survive a bit longer...
First off Erika has multiple vortices. All she needs to do is get some convection around one of them and she's off. Second Erika is a fighter. She has fought her way through shear and dry air so she may be able to make her way through land. Lastly, I can not stress enough how perfect the conditions are in the Bahamas. The water temperatures are in the 90s! All she needs to do is stick around a bit longer.
What I'm saying is Erika is not dead yet! I can't really make a new cone or predict much of anything right now. This weather forecasting at its most primitive level. Models really aren't being used by me right we just need to wait and see how much Erika is hurt today.
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