Yet another week has passed with zero tropical development in the Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center is still forecasting no new tropical development in the next five days.
National Hurricane Center 5-Day Outlook (August 15th 2019)
The last named storm in the Atlantic basin was Barry which dissipated on July 14th. If the NHC is correct with their five-day outlook, this would be the first time since the 1982 hurricane season that there was no named storms between July 14th and August 19th. The 1982 hurricane season ended up being well below average, with only two hurricanes, one of them major, and zero hurricane landfalls from any Atlantic basin cyclones. The accumulated cyclone energy of the season was a measly 32.
1982 Hurricane Season
The two hurricanes that did develop during the season were rather interesting storms. Hurricane Alberto which developed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico did not make a single landfall, which is unusual because once storms move into or form inside the Gulf of Mexico they almost always make a landfall. The other hurricane, Hurricane Debby, reached category 4 status farther north than any other hurricane recorded in the Atlantic.
Despite this unusual quiet period of Atlantic activity, its still possible for the season to become active. 85% of named storms form after August 15th after all. Also, although this season has had a similar amount of activity as 1982, unlike 1982, the ENSO status is La Nina, and is becoming even more La Nina. The National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University both issued midseason outlooks at the start of the month, and both organizations still called for an average to above average season.
However, everyday that passes with no tropical cyclones in sight, the chance of a below average season increases. Additionally, a La Nina weather pattern will not magically make the cyclones develop, and there has been low activity La Nina hurricane seasons, namely 1973 and 1974 which both featured well below normal accumulated cyclone energy and a strong La Nina pattern throughout.
Have a good night and enjoy the quiet weather!