The SPC has increased their risk for severe storms on Sunday, adding in an area of 30% on their map.
In the 30% area, widespread severe storms are likely with more scattered storms in the 15% area.
This event is still too far out for a lot of the short-range models so I'll hold off on making my own graphic for today.
Models went more bullish today on possible Colin. It now looks quite likely that we will have a tropical storm hitting the west coast of Florida Tuesday or Wednesday. Below I have mapped out some of the timing. I do think that we will have a tropical depression north of the Yucatan sometime Monday.
Currently the NHC only gives the future system only a 40% chance of developing. This seems low given the latest model data, so I expect a change at their next update.
As of right now, its too early to talk about specific impacts of future-Colin. What I can say is that central Florida will likely be drenched with
2-8 inches of rain, no matter the intensity of the system.
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