The short range models were right and snow amounts will way overachieve. Expect moderate the heavy snow ALL DAY. Below are my thoughts on snow totals.
18-30 inches - Central New Jersey and Long Island
18-25 inches - NYC
14-24 inches - Northeastern New Jersey, southern Rockland, Westchester and the south coast of Fairfield.
10-20 inches - Northwestern New Jersey, Orange and Putnam