A cold front will drop in Saturday. Then on Sunday a storm system will ride along this cold front. Where this cold front sets up will determine how much snow we get from this system. Yesterday it looked like the storm system would track well to the south of our area. This would produce heavy snowfall amounts of between 8 to 16 inches. However, today the latest model guidence shifts the storm farther north. This would not only reduce precipitation, but it would also mean warm air could filter in. If the warm air does filter in my job would be much harder as there would likely be a very sharp cut-off line for snow accumulations. For example Ocean county could see as little as an inch but Orange county could see as much as a foot.
Although the latest model guidence does suggest lowered snow totals, I am not buying into it yet. So far with this storm the weather models have consistently been predicting 12+ inches of snow and models often drop snow predictions at times for storms. As of right now here are my predicted snow totals.
Orange county- 7-12 inches
Northern Fairfield county- 6-10 inches
Northwestern and Northcentral New Jersey, southern Fairfield county and Rockland County- 5-8 inches
New York City, southern Morris, southern Warren, and all of Northeastern New Jersey - 3-6 inches
Central New Jersey excluding Monmouth County, Nassau county, Suffolk county- 2-5 inches
Monmouth county- 1-3 inches.
These are just my thoughts and my forecast can and will change. On a lighter note today was national weather person's day. Today we honor John Jeffries the first weather observer ever.