Rain is on its way! Also is a tornado outbreak coming for the Mississippi River Valley?
I'll start out with the tropics. We currently have an area of storminess located over Turks and Caicos. As it moves into the Bahamas it will likely turn into a tropical storm Kate. While I orginally thought that Kate could impact us it looks like she will head out to sea. The only way Kate may impact us is with some rough seas.
Now that we've got that cleared up I can get into the local weather.
Tomorrow should be another beautiful Fall day. Expect a chilly start to the day with temperatures in the 30s. By the time the sun starts to set temperatures should have warmed well into the 50s with plenty of sun.
Clouds will increase overnight and then Tuesday should be a nasty day. Expect on and off showers that could be heavy at times. These showers will also bring gusty wind especially on the coast. Here is my best guess at rainfall totals. I'm guessing because I have very low confidence in my forecast as some areas will get upwards of two inches of rain and some areas will get next to nothing.
The rain should move out for Wednesday and it should be a nice but windy day. As we enjoy sunny skies Wednesday afternoon, the Mississippi Valley will have a very different weather situation. Here is the map.
The storm system will start to organize itself early Wednesday morning dropping as much as a foot of snow in Colorado. As it moves northeast it will quickly strengthen. Warm moist air will surge ahead of an approaching cold front and a strong jet streak will form. The one ingredient that will be absent is instability. Or at least the explosive instability that we've seen in previous outbreaks will be absent.
Even without explosive instability I think there will be enough to support widespread tornadoes. I can't determine at this point whether they will be large and powerful but I do think we see quite a few tornadoes specifically in Missouri, Illinois and northern Arkansas.
There is still plenty of time to monitor this as these kind of things change a lot over a couple days. What I can say is that if you live in the red or yellow circles be sure to closely monitor the weather as Wednesday could be a dangerous day.
The cold front will move through us Thursday but the storm will be much weaker then. Nevertheless, there will still be some interesting weather.
It may be two weeks out but the models have consistently showed a major storm moving through the eastern United States. I will talk about it more in latter days but I just wanted to put it out there that there is a storm potential.
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