Tropical Depression Nine is organizing, and its not just threatening Florida.
TD 9 has some very deep convection firing this evening. However, it still looks a bit sloppy. This should change tomorrow as the MLC (mid-level center) and the LLC (low-level center) come together.
I only have one problem with the NHC's cone, the turn. While yes, TD 9 is making the turn, its not happening as sharply as the NHC is forecasting. If you look at the movement of TD 9, its moving west-north-west or northwest. However, on the cone the movement is north-north-east. So is TD 9 going to surprise and hit Texas? No. All I can say is I'm leaning towards the northwest side of the cone at least until it hits Florida late Thursday.
I also think that the issuance of a hurricane watch was a great call by the NHC, as it is certainly possible Hermine could strengthen into a weak hurricane before landfall.
A lot of rain is also likely with Hermine. As much as 10 inches in fact in the Big Bend. 6+ inches of rain should fall in Tampa over the next 72 hours.
So whats next after hitting Florida? Hermine will likely cause tropical storm conditions along the Carolina coastline Friday, and then start to head out to sea. However, a blocking high to the north may prevent it from going completely out to sea. Its looking increasingly likely that it could curve back west, and possibly threaten the Northeast this weekend.
The GFS ensemble is the most aggressive with this scenario right now, as many different ensemble members take a tropical storm or even hurricane force low somewhere between Delmarva and New England this weekend.
All of this is five plus days out, so I don't know too much about it. This is especially true since the models really only recently brought up this potential. What I can say is that storms that recurve into the Northeast usually mean business as they don't have to deal with as much land interaction. In addition to that, the angle these storms come in push even more surge into the beaches, and hit more land.
Even if TD 9/Hermine doesn't hit the northeast, waters will still be extremely rough for Labor Day Weekend. Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!