*Note: By the time your reading this some of these satellite images may be outdated. For more recent satellite images go to the Tropics Page.
After a very quiet past few weeks, the tropics are active again...
Yesterday I did a post on Invest 96L. Then today a new Invest, Invest 97L formed, and looks more promising than 96L. But since 96L still has a pretty good chance of developing so lets start with that system.
Since yesterday, convection on Invest 96L has become deeper and more widespread, and it is beginning to develop a clearer circulation. Looking at the satellite loop below you can tell this thing is in the process of becoming a tropical system.
The NHC has kept the chance of 96L developing at only 40% in the next 5 days which seems way too low. Already 96L looks kind of like a tropical depression, and I think it'll definitely look like a depression tomorrow. Why the NHC is holding back on 96L I don't know. In their tropical discussion they cited that "environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development early next week." However, conditions right now around 96L are quite favorable for tropical development.
For some reference on what a tropical depression looks like here is a side-by comparison. On the left we have TD 4 from a little over a month ago in the Bay of Campeche. Then on the right we have Invest 96L. In my opinion, Invest 96L doesn't look less organized than TD 4.
So whats next for 96L? I won't be coming out with a cone until tomorrow, but I do have an idea of what 96L will do next. I do think 96L will develop into a tropical storm, but shouldn't threaten any land. For now I'm going with the majority of the models and saying 96L heads out to sea.
If you follow my twitter you would know that another Invest formed today. Being a tropical fanatic, I was understandably pretty excited, as I saw the potential this Invest had.
Here's a look at the latest satellite loop.
I know. It's very underwhelming. But hear me out, this thing has potential.
I see three possible tracks this Invest could take. Below I have explained all of them.
Track #1 : Lowest Impact
If track #1 comes to fruition then it unlikely anybody is left with lots of damage. This track likely develops 97L into a depression or tropical storm and then moves it directly over the Caribbean Islands causing it to weaken due to land interaction. Since the European model, which is the best model at this range, is predicting this track, I think this is by far the most likely track at the time being. Other models are also projecting this track but the euro is by far the most powerful one predicting this scenario.
Track #2 : Highest Impact
If track #2 comes to fruition, we could be looking at a powerful tropical cyclone hitting somewhere. If 97L takes a track south of the Caribbean it'll receive lots of energy from the very warm waters in the Caribbean Sea and especially south of Cuba. There is also very warm waters in the Gulf, which is where most storms that take this track head.
The GFS ensemble along with a few hurricane models are forecasting this track, which isn't a whole lot of support. Also, while waters are warm, if 97L took this track it could encounter some unfavorable wind shear.
Track #3 : Moderate Impact
In track #3, 97L actually goes north of the Caribbean. Similar to track #2 the support for this track is trivial. If a storm were to take this track it would move over warm waters and likely strengthen. I do think that if a tropical cyclone were to go with this track it would probably head out to sea at this time of year.
It's worth noting that a lot of these predictions are preliminary and we have long way before anywhere even has a chance of feeling impacts.
For more information on the tropics and also information on the heavy rain moving into the area, be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow!