Tropical Action in the Pacific Overshadows Dormant Atlantic - Weather Discussion

The Atlantic remains stormless, with no new tropical cyclones expected in the forecastable time frame. 

National Hurricane Center 5-Day Outlook (August 6th 2019)

The last tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin was Hurricane Barry which made landfall July 13th and dissipated on July 14th. Barry's most noticeable impact was its rainfall. However, shear and dry air on the north side of Barry, prevented a flooding event of Florence or Harvey magnitude. Nevertheless, a rainfall total of 16.59 inches was recorded near Dierks, Arkansas, which made Barry the wettest tropical cyclone in Arkansas history. 

Hurricane Barry at landfall (July 13th 2019)

This "infamous" map has been circulating twitter recently. Five states have broken their tropical cyclone precipiation records in the last three years. Including Texas with Hurricane Harvey, Hawaii with Hurricane Lane , North Carolina with Hurricane Florence, South Carolina with Hurricane Florence, and most recently, Arkansas with Hurricane Barry. Climatologists theorize that this trend of extremely wet tropical cyclones is a result of anthropogenic global warming.

No Atlantic named storm activity has happened between the period of July 15th to August 6th three times in the last twenty years. Those seasons were 1999, 2009 and 2015 and all three of these seasons yielded hurricanes of category 4 strength. The 1999 season was particularly extreme, yielding an impressive accumulated cyclone energy of 177, and four category 4 hurricanes, including the historic Hurricane Floyd. The statistical peak of hurricane season is still over a month away, and theres plenty of time for a pattern change in the Atlantic.

1999 Atlantic Hurricane Storm Tracks + Timing

Tropical activity in the eastern Pacific has been fairly active this year with two category 1 hurricanes and two category 4 hurricanes forming. There is yet to be a single landfalling tropical cyclone in the east or central Pacific. Those two category 4 hurricanes were Hurricane Barbara and Hurricane Erick, Hurricane Barbara being the stronger of the two falling just short of category 5 strength.

Hurricane Barbara

Hurricane Erick

Yesterday, August 5th, saw the death of not one, not two, but three cyclones in the pacific, with Hurricane Erick, Hurricane Flossie, and Tropical Storm Gil all degenerating into remnant lows.

The NHC is not anticipating any tropical cyclone activity in this basin in the next five days, however, models are suggesting increased activity next week.

American and European weather models both show increasing tropical activity in the central and eastern pacific during the latter part of next week. 

Things are even more exciting in the western Pacific with Typhoon Francisco making landfall early yesterday morning in southern Japan as a category 1 typhoon. 

Typhoon Francisco radar and satellite imagery upon landfall (August 5th)

Up to four inches of rain an hour fell in some areas in the Kyushu province of Japan. Overall the damage from the storm is not extreme as this region is fairly used to these typhoons.

Typhoon Francisco weakened to a tropical storm after landfall and made a second landfall as a tropical storm in South Korea this morning. Francisco will transition into an extratropical low over the Sea of Japan, then move over Hokkaido, and then finally move towards the Bering Sea.

Tropical Storm Francisco Cone

Two more tropical cyclones are spinning to the south of Francisco. 

Typhoon Lekima

Tropical Storm Krosa

Both Typhoon Lekima and Tropical Storm Krosa are expected to intensify over the next 48-72 hours. Lekima will likely develop into a major hurricane and make landfall anywhere from northern Taiwan to southwestern Japan. Right now, it is looking most likely that Lekima makes landfall somewhere in mainland China, possibly near Shanghai, and then heads into Korea likely as a weak tropical storm. There is also a possibility that Lekima makes its first landfall in Korea. Lack of land interaction could mean that Lekima could hold typhoon strength, even if it made landfall as far north as South Korea. Tropical Storm Krosa is less of a threat to land, but there is a slight risk of a Japanese landfall near where Francisco made landfall. 

Lekima is definitely a storm to watch with models indicating a rather unusual and potentially dangerous track for East Asia. 

18z GFS ensemble tracks for Typhoon Lekima (August 6th)

Its good to be back and blogging :) Don't know if anyone is reading this but I'm just happy to do anything involved with wondrous world of meteorology. 

​-Con