After 11 days of tracking Invest 99L, it's FINALLY developed into Tropical Depression Nine...
Tropical Depression Nine is looking OK this evening. It's moving off off Cuba tomorrow morning so that should help it develop. Shear will also be lower then. TD Nine has its convection messed up with afternoon thunderstorms off Cuba again today, and its pretty hard to tell whats what. We'll only know until it pulls off Cuba tomorrow morning.
While there is still some uncertainty, it looks like we have a good idea of whats going to happen with TD 9. Below is the NHC's cone that I can't really disagree with. It develops TD 9 into a tropical storm tomorrow afternoon, and then it takes it into the Big Bend of Florida Thursday night as a 50 mph storm.
I've heard some people saying that TD 9 will get more intense, but I think for the amount of shear right now in the Gulf, its perfect. If the shear changes, I'm sure the NHC will adjust intensities accordingly.
After Florida gets hit, the tropical storm will likely continue to develop east of Florida. Waters are pretty warm here with the gulf stream, so strengthening isn't impossible once it gets out of the Gulf. Then we have to watch whether it could affect the Carolinas, and then possibly down the road, eastern New England. For now I think the storm will go out to sea, but things could obviously change.
Hurricane Gaston strengthened into our first major hurricane of the 2016 season. It's also the first major hurricane since Joaquin last year. He's looking absolutely gorgeous tonight, and is a sight to behold.
Gaston will continue to strengthen a bit over the next 24-36 hours before weakening a bit and heading east.
Invest 91L organized itself into TD 8 today and it looks like garbage. It's circulation is absolutely naked and conditions aren't great for convection to bubble up.
The NHC wants to develop this into a tropical storm and skim North Carolina, but I'm not so sure that's going to happen.
Finally, we have the tropical wave that's going to move off Africa Tuesday. I really don't have any interest in talking about this system, because well, it hasn't even moved off Africa yet. I'll talk more about this wave Tuesday night when we have a real Invest.
If you're in Florida, just be sure to keep an eye on the forecast for changes. A big hurricane isn't likely, but even tropical storms can be dangerous. Have a great night and be sure to follow my twitter @conweather!