Day 10 of Invest 99L watch and we still don't know whats going on. But 99L isn't the only thing going on in the tropics...
Before we look at the big story of 99L, there are some other things going on in the tropics. After weakening back to a tropical storm, Gaston is nearing hurricane strength again. However, it still looks like Gaston should miss all land, except maybe western Europe as an extratropical storm down the road.
The yellow x near the Bahamas has been designated as Invest 91L. It is currently fighting a lot of shear and dry air, and doesn't look great.
91L should track west over the next few days. The spaghetti plots skim North Carolina with some rain with this system. Some develop it, most don't, therefore, this isn't really a high priority to watch right now.
Other than 99L and 91L, another tropical wave will move off Africa Tuesday, which will be 92L. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of development in the next 5 days.
This wave looks really, really promising. A strong ridge to its north will push it due west across the MDR. By the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles next weekend, it'll probably already be a hurricane. After that, things are unclear. It could go out to sea, or it could hit land but that's all so far out I'm not even going to talk about probabilities.
Below is a satellite loop of Invest 99L, which is currently wedged between the Bahamas and Cuba.
In the beginning of the loop you can see thunderstorms exploding over Cuba. Several hours ago, there was a lot of afternoon thunderstorm activity over Cuba. This caused sinking air to develop around 99L which dryed out most of it's convection. You can see the convection over 99L just disappearing in the first few frames. However, storms have now struck back, and a big convective burst is ongoing to the east of the center of 99L. I'll be watching this burst on my twitter @conweather so be sure to follow that.
So whats next for 99L? It's still incredibly unclear. Like shockingly unclear. Where's it headed? No idea. How strong will it get? I don't know. With such uncertainty I decided to make the most useless cone ever.
I think its a given that intensity is pretty unclear at this point. But timing is also unclear. This is because with such a wide cone, if it were to track into Tampa, it would get there days before reaching Louisiana. There's also the fact that some models stall out 99L like the euro and UKMET which would take longer to make landfall too.
Speaking of the euro, boy did it take steroids today! After several runs of not developing 99L at all, it takes a strong, 964 millibar hurricane into the Alabama/Florida border. This is just one operational model, so I'm not putting too much stock in it. Also the ensembles aren't nearly as impressed.
I'm not going to go over all the models tonight, because that would be such a big waste of time. I really don't like talking about specific models on this website, but I do think I'm going to do a just models post tomorrow. This'll probably be out around late morning.
Isn't it the most wonderful time of the year? Have a great night everybody and if any gulf coasters are reading this, please play close attention to the weather. Things could change very fast.