The tropics have really become active in the past few days...
Above is a map of all the different things going on the tropics. I'm going to address all of these systems in order of importance and possible impact.
Firstly, we have the tropical wave moving off of Africa, that has a purple circle around it. The models don't show this wave developing and neither does the NHC, as they designated it as an area of interest. Nevertheless, I'll keep an eye on it in the next few days just in case something changes.
Next, we have tropical depression Fiona. The sun has recently set on her satellite and she isn't looking too hawt.
Fiona should continue to drift west-north-west at a decent pace over the next few days, just holding on to its tropical depression status. It'll then most likely dissipate into nothing. There's an very slight chance that Fiona could restrengthen into a tropical storm, and then head out to sea, or into North Carolina, but that's almost definitely not going to happen.
The main reason to watch Fiona is its relationship with Invest 99L, the main system to watch. I think I'll have an update tomorrow on their relationship and how it could affect 99L.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Tropical Depression 7 formed to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands today, and boi does this storm mean business.
The NHC is forecasting TD 7 to become tropical storm Gaston tonight, or tomorrow morning. It should then strenghten to a hurricane Wednesday. Gaston isn't expected to strengthen past category 1 strength in the next 5 days.
Past 5 days is where Gaston really gets going. The GFS brings its pressure down to the 960s and has winds of a weak category 3, major hurricane.
The euro goes even more bonkers taking it down to 934 millibars. Which would be at least a category 4 hurricane, possibly category 5!
So who's going to be affected by this beast? Humpback whales. And orca whales, and blue whales and maybe even some dolphins. Yes, Gaston will be one for the fish. Hurricane Gaston will go out to sea and won't hit any land.
Finally, we have the most important system, Invest 99L. 99L is looking pretty decent tonight. In fact, for an Invest, it looks pretty good in my opinion.
I decided to make a modified cone for 99L, to show where its heading and some possible outcomes.
For the next two days, 99L will move west-north-west and organize a bit. The NHC has given 99L a 40% chance of development during this period. I think this is a perfect call by the NHC, as it could develop into a tropical depression, but its unlikely.
Wednesday into Thursday 99L will do one of two things. It'll either track over the Caribbean Islands and weaken into nothing, or go through the red area and strengthen. As you can see on the cone the red area is much larger then the purple, so I do think that 99L will move into this area.
Once 99L gets into the red area, it should strengthen and organize itself, as conditions are highly favorable. If I had to say what 99L will be this weekend, I'd say we'll have Tropical Storm Hermine in or just north of the Bahamas. After that, its very unclear. If you follow my twitter you would know that the Euro brings this thing into the eastern Gulf, and hits Florida with a very strong hurricane. Its hawt, but its 10 days out and unlikely. So for now, I'm just going to leave all of you with a cliff hanger and say the most annoying thing forecasters say, "we'll just have to wait and see."
Be sure to check out my twitter @conweather and follow. Also check out the Tropics Page. Have a great night!