One annoying forecast...
I don't have a whole lot of time tonight so I'm just going to jump right on in with the weekend snow storm threat.
Thursday a low pressure system will develop in Oklahoma, becoming more organized as it moves into the southeast.
Friday the storm will move northeast, bringing snow and rain with it. It won't be until Friday night snow will start to move into the coverage area. Snow will pick up Saturday and will likely turn heavy as we head into the afternoon. The snow will start to taper off Saturday night and should be out of the area by Sunday morning. On the coast, including eastern Long Island the snow will likely mix with rain and sleet.
When its all said and done the coverage area should expect significant snow accumulations. I'm thinking right now that New York City south gets over a foot with less than a foot north of New York City. I'll have an actual snow accumulation map tomorrow afternoon.
The models today have trended a little bit farther south. This would drop snowfall amounts significantly north of Philadelphia. If the models continue to trend farther south then the coverage area could be left with next to nothing especially in northern areas.
Basically this storm has the same volatility of last years January blizzard. If you don't remember, areas near Boston got as much as three feet, whereas areas near New York City only got 2-10 inches. The cutoff will be extremely sharp as there always is with major snowstorms.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens with the models. I will definitely have an update early tomorrow morning on the 00z models.
No matter what there will be coastal effects. The chance for damaging winds is high. In addition to that there could be major coastal flooding especially on the Jersey shore.
I'll have much more details tomorrow when I have more time.
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